IL-6, IL-10 and TNFα do not improve early detection of post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography acute pancreatitis: a prospective cohort study

Abstract

The most reliable indicators for post-ERCP acute pancreatitis are elevated amylase levels and abdominal pain 24 hours after ERCP. As ERCP is often performed on an outpatient basis, earlier diagnosis is important. We aimed to identify early predictors of post-ERCP pancreatitis. We prospectively analyzed IL-6, IL-10, TNFα, CRP, amylase and lipase before and 4 hours after ERCP, and studied their association with abdominal pain. We included 510 patients. Post-ERCP pancreatitis occurred in 36 patients (7.1%). IL-6, IL-10, TNFα and CRP were not associated with post-ERCP pancreatitis. Levels of amylase and lipase were higher in patients with pancreatitis (522 U/L and 1808 U/L vs. 78 U/L and 61 U/L, respectively; p < 0.001). A cut-off of 218 U/L for amylase (x2.2 ULN) and 355 U/L for lipase (x6 ULN) had a negative predictive value of 99.2% and 99.5%, respectively. Amylase and lipase present a good correlation (Pearson coefficient 0.912). Among 342 (67.1%) patients without abdominal pain at 4 hours, post-ERCP pancreatitis was diagnosed in 8 (2.3%). Only 4 of these patients presented amylase or lipase > 3 ULN. Amylase and lipase were the only markers of post-ERCP pancreatitis 4 hours after the procedure.

Figure 1. Potential early markers in serum levels 4 hours post-ERCP.

Figure 2. ROC curves to predict pancreatitis at 4 hours for amylase and lipase.