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. 2016 Sep;111(9):559-60.
doi: 10.1590/0074-02760160149.

Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread

Abdallah M Samy  1   2 , Stephanie M Thomas  3 , Ahmed Abd El Wahed  4 , Kevin P Cohoon  5 , A Townsend Peterson  2
Affiliations

Mapping the global geographic potential of Zika virus spread

Abdallah M Samy et al. Mem Inst Oswaldo Cruz. 2016 Sep.

Abstract

The Americas are presently experiencing the most serious known outbreak of Zika virus (ZIKV). Here, we present a novel set of analyses using environmental characteristics, vector mosquito distributions, and socioeconomic risk factors to develop the first map to detail global ZIKV transmission risk in multiple dimensions based on ecological niche models. Our model predictions were tested against independent evaluation data sets, and all models had predictive ability significantly better than random expectations. The study addresses urgent knowledge gaps regarding (1) the potential geographic scope of the current ZIKV epidemic, (2) the global potential for spread of ZIKV, and (3) drivers of ZIKV transmission. Our analysis of potential drivers of ZIKV distributions globally identified areas vulnerable in terms of some drivers, but not for others. The results of these analyses can guide regional education and preparedness efforts, such that medical personnel will be better prepared for diagnosis of potential ZIKV cases as they appear.

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Figures

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Predicted global potential distribution of Zika virus, based on ecological niche models integrating occurrences with data on climate, socioeconomic status, land-cover, mosquito abundance, and accessibility. Orange areas were identified as suitable based on drivers related to physical environment and vector populations; purple areas were identified as suitable based on drivers related to human conditions and accessibility; blue areas were identified as suitable in terms of all drivers considered (individual models are presented in the Supplementary data). Note some potential for autochthonous transmission in the southeastern USA, but broader potential for accessibility-related cases (e.g., imported infections that may turn into autochthonous transmission via seasonal vector activity) across the USA and Europe. A raster GIS (5 km resolution) version of this map is available from: https://figshare.com/s/0257ff447ccc11373e41.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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