Fatality risks for nosocomial outbreaks of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus in the Middle East and South Korea

Abstract

Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) was first isolated in 2012. The largest known outbreak outside the Middle East occurred in South Korea in 2015. As of 29 June 2016, 1769 laboratory-confirmed cases (630 deaths; 35.6 % case fatality rate [CFR]) had been reported from 26 countries, particularly in the Middle East. However, the CFR for hospital outbreaks was higher than that of family clusters in the Middle East and Korea. Here, we compared the mortality rates for 51 nosocomial outbreaks in the Middle East and one outbreak of MERS-CoV in South Korea. Our findings showed the CFR in the Middle East was much higher than that in South Korea (25.9 % [56/216] vs. 13.8 % [24/174], p = 0.003). Infected individuals who died were, on average, older than those who survived in both the Middle East (64 years [25-98] vs. 46 years [2-85], p = 0.000) and South Korea (68 years [49-82] vs. 53.5 years [16-87], p = 0.000). Similarly, the co-morbidity rates for the fatal cases were statistically higher than for the nonfatal cases in both the Middle East (64.3 % [36/56] vs. 28.1 % [45/160], p = 0.000) and South Korea (45.8 % [11/24] vs. 12.0 % [18/150], p = 0.000). The median number of days from onset to confirmation of infection in the fatal cases was longer than that for survivors from the Middle East (8 days [1-47] vs. 4 days [0-14], p = 0.009). Thus, older age, pre-existing concurrent diseases, and delayed confirmation increase the odds of a fatal outcome in nosocomial MERS-CoV outbreaks in the Middle East and South Korea.