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. 2016 Sep 29;21(39):30353.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2016.21.39.30353.

A norovirus intervariant GII.4 recombinant in Victoria, Australia, June 2016: the next epidemic variant?

Leesa Bruggink  1 , Michael Catton, John Marshall
Affiliations

A norovirus intervariant GII.4 recombinant in Victoria, Australia, June 2016: the next epidemic variant?

Leesa Bruggink et al. Euro Surveill. .

Abstract

A norovirus recombinant GII.P4_NewOrleans_2009/GII.4_Sydney_2012 was first detected in Victoria, Australia, in August 2015 at low frequency, and then re-emerged in June 2016, having undergone genetic changes. Analysis of 14 years' surveillance data from Victoria suggests a typical delay of two to seven months between first detection of a new variant and occurrence of a subsequent epidemic linked to that variant. We consider that the current recombinant strain has the potential to become a pandemic variant.

Keywords: emergence; epidemic; norovirus; pandemic; recombination; variant.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflicts of Interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Norovirus gastroenteritis outbreak periodicity, Victoria, Australia, 2002–15 (n = 2,473)
Figure 2
Figure 2
Norovirus gastroenteritis outbreaks in Victoria, Australia, 2016a (n = 61)
Figure 3
Figure 3
Phylogenetic tree of an ORF1 fragment of norovirus GII.4 strains
Figure 4
Figure 4
Phylogenetic tree of the full capsid sequence of norovirus GII.4 variant reference strains
Figure 5
Figure 5
Amino acid alignment of the full capsid protein of the GII.4_Sydney_2012 norovirus reference strain and the proposed new variant detected in June 2016 in Victoria, Australia
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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