Sex, Mosquitoes and Epidemics: An Evaluation of Zika Disease Dynamics

Abstract

Since the first major outbreak reported on the island Yap in 2007, the Zika virus spread has alerted the scientific community worldwide. Zika is an arbovirus transmitted by Aedes mosquitoes; particularly in Central and South America, the main vector is the same mosquito that transmits dengue and chikungunya, Aedes aegypti. Seeking to understand the dynamics of spread of the Zika, in this paper, three mathematical models are presented, in which vector transmission of the virus, sexual contact transmission and migration are considered. Numerical analysis of these models allows us to have a clear view of the effects of sexual transmission and migration in the spread of the virus, showing that sexual transmission influences the magnitude of the outbreaks and migration generates outbreaks over time, each of lower intensity than the previous.

Keywords: Basic reproductive number; Migration; Sexual transmission; ZIKA virus.