The effects of China's universal two-child policy

Abstract

In October, 2015, China's one-child policy was replaced by a universal two-child policy. The effects of the new policy are inevitably speculative, but predictions can be made based on recent trends. The population increase will be relatively small, peaking at 1·45 billion in 2029 (compared with a peak of 1·4 billion in 2023 if the one-child policy continued). The new policy will allow almost all Chinese people to have their preferred number of children. The benefits of the new policy include: a large reduction in abortions of unapproved pregnancies, virtual elimination of the problem of unregistered children, and a more normal sex ratio. All of these effects should improve health outcomes. Effects of the new policy on the shrinking workforce and rapid population ageing will not be evident for two decades. In the meantime, more sound policy actions are needed to meet the social, health, and care needs of the elderly population.

Figure 1. Total fertility rate in China, from 1950 to 2014

Data from United Nations Population Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs.

Figure 2. Percentages of all people aged ≥65 years and people aged ≥65 years living in empty-nest households among total population

Data from Zeng et al.

Figure 3. Number of people in labour force (age 18–64 years)

Units are 100 millions. Data from Zeng et al.

Figure 4. Elderly dependency ratios

Data from Zeng et al.