Spirometric variability in smokers: transitions in COPD diagnosis in a five-year longitudinal study

Abstract

Background: Spirometrically-defined chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is considered progressive but its natural history is inadequately studied. We hypothesized that spirometrically-defined COPD states could undergo beneficial transitions.

Methods: Participants in the Lovelace Smokers' Cohort (n = 1553), primarily women, were longitudinally studied over 5 years. Spirometric states included normal postbronchodilator spirometry, COPD Stage I, Unclassified state, and COPD Stage II+, as defined by GOLD guidelines. Beneficial transitions included either a decrease in disease severity, including resolution of spirometric abnormality, or maintenance of non-diseased state. 'All smokers' (n = 1553) and subgroups with normal and abnormal spirometry at baseline (n = 956 and 597 respectively) were separately analyzed. Markov-like model of transition probabilities over an average follow-up period of 5 years were calculated.

Results: Among 'all smokers', COPD Stage I, Unclassified, and COPD Stage II+ states were associated with probabilities of 16, 39, and 22 % respectively for beneficial transitions, and of 16, 35, and 4 % respectively for resolution. Beneficial transitions were more common for new-onset disease than for pre-existing disease (p < 0.001). Beneficial transitions were less common among older smokers, men, or those with bronchial hyperresponsiveness but more common among Hispanics and smokers with excess weight.

Conclusions: This observational study of ever smokers, shows that spirometrically-defined COPD states, may not be uniformly progressive and can improve or resolve over time. The implication of these findings is that the spirometric diagnosis of COPD can be unstable. Furthermore, COPD may have a pre-disease state when interventions might help reverse or change its natural history.

Trial registration: NA.

Fig. 1

Multi-state Markov-like model analyzing longitudinal transition probabilities between spirometric states, among ‘all smokers’, irrespective of spirometric disease at baseline, over approximately 5 years, Albuquerque, New Mexico, 2001–2015, Lovelace Smokers’ Cohort. Curved block arrows represents transition probabilities of staying within the same spirometric state between study examination visits at 18 month intervals. Straight arrows represent transition probabilities of change in spirometric state between study examination visits. Strength of transition probabilities is represented by the width of the straight arrow. Transition probabilities for each spirometric state are depicted in the same color as the sphere representing the spirometric state

Fig. 2

The traditional model of ‘progression’ of COPD, whereby non-diseased smokers progress to COPD GOLD Stage I and then to COPD GOLD Stage II+, is over-simplistic. Our findings suggest that not only can spirometric disease states improve or resolve over time at any point in the ‘progression’ trajectory but there may also be an additional model of disease ‘progression’ that includes GOLD Unclassified as an intermediate state between non-diseased smoker and COPD states. Abbreviations: COPD: Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease; GOLD: Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease