A biodiversity hotspot losing its top predator: The challenge of jaguar conservation in the Atlantic Forest of South America

Abstract

The jaguar is the top predator of the Atlantic Forest (AF), which is a highly threatened biodiversity hotspot that occurs in Brazil, Paraguay and Argentina. By combining data sets from 14 research groups across the region, we determine the population status of the jaguar and propose a spatial prioritization for conservation actions. About 85% of the jaguar's habitat in the AF has been lost and only 7% remains in good condition. Jaguars persist in around 2.8% of the region, and live in very low densities in most of the areas. The population of jaguars in the AF is probably lower than 300 individuals scattered in small sub-populations. We identified seven Jaguar Conservation Units (JCUs) and seven potential JCUs, and only three of these areas may have ≥50 individuals. A connectivity analysis shows that most of the JCUs are isolated. Habitat loss and fragmentation were the major causes for jaguar decline, but human induced mortality is the main threat for the remaining population. We classified areas according to their contribution to jaguar conservation and we recommend management actions for each of them. The methodology in this study could be used for conservation planning of other carnivore species.

Figure 1. Habitat suitability for jaguars in the Atlantic Forest.

The colored area inside the left corner inset details the location of the study area in South America. The map was created with ArcGis 10.3 (www.arcgis.com).

Figure 2. Jaguar records obtained along the AF and the areas of jaguar occupancy (AJO), the areas of potential jaguar occupancy (APJO) and the distribution of available jaguar habitat in the Atlantic Forest.

The map was created with ArcGis 10.3 (www.arcgis.com).

Figure 3. Distribution of the Jaguar Conservation Units (JCU), the Potential Jaguar Conservation Units (PJCU) and the small fragments with jaguar presence.

References: (1) Green Corridor, (2) Upper Parana-Paranapanema, (3) Serra do Mar, (4) Mbaracayú, (5) Serra do Mar Norte, (6) Rio Doce, (7) Linhares-Sooretama, (8) San Rafael, (9) Itaipú, (10) Serra dos Órgãos, (11) Itatiaia, (12) Campos do Jordao, (13) East Paraguay, (14) Das Perobas Reserve, (15) Rio Tiete-West SP, (16) PE Serra do Brigadeiro, (17) Mantiqueira and (18) Espinhaço. The map was created with ArcGis 10.3 (www.arcgis.com).

Figure 4. Other important areas for jaguar conservation in the Atlantic Forest.

Potential core areas may be considered as potential areas to reintroduce the species to create new subpopulations. Potential expansion areas may be considered to enlarge JCU, PJCU and Potential core areas. The map was created with ArcGis 10.3 (www.arcgis.com).

Figure 5. Methodology used to estimate the distribution and size of the subpopulations and the population size of jaguars in the Atlantic Forest.

The same methodology could be used to evaluate the populations status of other carnivore species. The authors created this figure.

Figure 6. Methodology used to define the important areas for conservation of the species and management recommendations for each area.

The same methodology could be used for conservation planning of other carnivore species. The authors created this figure.