Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2016 Nov 25:14:45.
doi: 10.1186/s12963-016-0114-0.

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji

Stephen Morrell  1 , Sophia Lin  1 , Isimeli Tukana  2 , Christine Linhart  1 , Richard Taylor  3 , Penina Vatucawaqa  4 , Dianna J Magliano  5 , Paul Zimmet  5
Affiliations

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Fiji

Stephen Morrell et al. Popul Health Metr. .

Abstract

Background: Type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) incidence is traditionally derived from cohort studies that are not always feasible, representative, or available. The present study estimates T2DM incidence in Fijian adults from T2DM prevalence estimates assembled from surveys of 25-64 year old adults conducted over 30 years (n = 14,288).

Methods: T2DM prevalence by five-year age group from five population-based risk factor surveys conducted over 1980-2011 were variously adjusted for urban-rural residency, ethnicity, and sex to previous censuses (1976, 1986, 1996, 2009) to improve representativeness. Prevalence estimates were then used to calculate T2DM incidence based on birth cohorts from the age-period (Lexis) matrix following the Styblo technique, first used to estimate annual risk of tuberculosis infection (incidence) from sequential Mantoux population surveys. Poisson regression of year, age, sex, and ethnicity strata (n = 160) was used to develop projections of T2DM prevalence and incidence to 2020 based on various scenarios of population weight measured by body mass index (BMI) change.

Results: T2DM prevalence and annual incidence increased in Fiji over 1980-2011. Prevalence was higher in Indians and men than i-Taukei and women. Incidence was higher in Indians and women. From regression analyses, absolute reductions of 2.6 to 5.1% in T2DM prevalence (13-26% lower), and 0.5-0.9 per 1000 person-years in incidence (8-14% lower), could be expected in 2020 in adults if mean population weight could be reduced by 1-4 kg, compared to the current period trend in weight gain.

Conclusions: This is the first application of the Styblo technique to calculate T2DM incidence from population-based prevalence surveys over time. Reductions in population BMI are predicted to reduce T2DM incidence and prevalence in Fiji among adults aged 25-64 years.

Keywords: Developing country; Fiji; Incidence; Obesity; Pacific islands; Prevalence; Trends; Type 2 diabetes mellitus.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Diabetes (T2DM) prevalence (%) in Fiji adults aged 25–64 years, 1980–2011. Black squares = i-Taukei men; black circles = i-Taukei women; white squares = Indian men; white circles = Indian women. T2DM prevalence was adjusted for urban-rural and age to nearest previous census. Trend lines were derived from meta-regression of adjusted survey prevalences weighted by the inverse of the SE
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Estimated T2DM incidence (per 1,000 person-years) in Fiji adults aged 25–64 years, 1980–2010, with projection to 2020. Black squares = i-Taukei men; black circles = i-Taukei women; white squares = Indian men; white circles = Indian women. Solid line = interpolated and modeled incidence using the Styblo birth cohort method. Broken line = projected incidence
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Similar articles

See all similar articles

Cited by

See all "Cited by" articles

References

    1. Soderberg S, Zimmet P, Tuomilehto J, de Courten M, Dowse GK, Chitson P, et al. High incidence of type 2 diabetes and increasing conversion rates from impaired fasting glucose and impaired glucose tolerance to diabetes in Mauritius. J Intern Med. 2004;256:37–47. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-2796.2004.01336.x. - DOI - PubMed
    1. McCambridge J, Witton J, Elbourne DR. Systematic review of the Hawthorne effect: new concepts are needed to study research participation effects. J Clin Epidemiol. 2014;67(3):267–277. doi: 10.1016/j.jclinepi.2013.08.015. - DOI - PMC - PubMed
    1. Geiss LS, Pan L, Cadwell B, Gregg EW, Benjamin SM, Engelgau MM. Changes in incidence of diabetes in U.S. adults, 1997–2003. Am J Prev Med. 2006;30(5):371–377. doi: 10.1016/j.amepre.2005.12.009. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Monesi L, Baviera M, Marzona I, Avanzini F, Monesi G, Nobili A, et al. Prevalence, incidence and mortality of diagnosed diabetes: evidence from an Italian population-based study. Diabet Med. 2012;29:385–392. doi: 10.1111/j.1464-5491.2011.03446.x. - DOI - PubMed
    1. AIHW Australian Institute of Health and Welfare . Insulin-treated treated diabetes in Australia 2000-2007. Diabetes series no. 11. Cat. No. CVD 45. Canberra: Australian Institute of Health and Welfare; 2009.

Publication types