The global decline of cheetah Acinonyx jubatus and what it means for conservation

Abstract

Establishing and maintaining protected areas (PAs) are key tools for biodiversity conservation. However, this approach is insufficient for many species, particularly those that are wide-ranging and sparse. The cheetah Acinonyx jubatus exemplifies such a species and faces extreme challenges to its survival. Here, we show that the global population is estimated at ∼7,100 individuals and confined to 9% of its historical distributional range. However, the majority of current range (77%) occurs outside of PAs, where the species faces multiple threats. Scenario modeling shows that, where growth rates are suppressed outside PAs, extinction rates increase rapidly as the proportion of population protected declines. Sensitivity analysis shows that growth rates within PAs have to be high if they are to compensate for declines outside. Susceptibility of cheetah to rapid decline is evidenced by recent rapid contraction in range, supporting an uplisting of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List threat assessment to endangered. Our results are applicable to other protection-reliant species, which may be subject to systematic underestimation of threat when there is insufficient information outside PAs. Ultimately, conserving many of these species necessitates a paradigm shift in conservation toward a holistic approach that incentivizes protection and promotes sustainable human-wildlife coexistence across large multiple-use landscapes.

Keywords: landscape conservation; megafauna; population viability analysis; protected areas; threat assessment.

Fig. 1.

Known cheetah distribution in (A) Africa and (B) Asia. Gray shading denotes historical range, and red shading shows the range where cheetah are known to be resident. Boundaries of PAs under IUCN categories I–IV are marked in blue.

Fig. 2.

Scenario modeling of a population of cheetah living on unprotected and protected lands. Starting population is 200 individuals distributed at a varying proportion between protected and unprotected lands (x axis). Multiplicative growth rate (lambda) inside PAs is 1.0, but outside PAs, it is allowed to vary from this rate down to 0.8. Graphs show estimated extinction rates under three migration scenarios: (A) no migration between protected and unprotected lands, (B) medium migration rate between protected and unprotected lands of 0.05 and SD of 0.025, and (C) high migration rate of 0.1 and SD of 0.05. Results are reported from 1,000 simulations over 50 y.

Fig. 3.

Simulated (A) population trajectories over three generations (15 y) of the global cheetah population and (B) sensitivity analysis to changes in the growth rate within PAs. Starting population was the current total estimated global population size of 7,000 individuals, with 33% of the population on protected lands (Table 1). The dashed lines depict results from a multiplicative growth rate (lambda) of 0.9 on unprotected lands, and the solid lines show 0.8. Migration rate was set at 0.05 with SD of 0.025. Results are reported from 1,000 simulations, and all other parameters of the model are as described for Fig. 2. The gray dotted lines depict the 50% threshold for uplisting to endangered status using the IUCN Red List criterion A3b [a population size reduction of ≥50% projected or suspected to be met within the next three generations based on an index of abundance (28)].

Fig. S1.

Simulated population trajectories over three generations (15 y) for the global cheetah population under different migration rates. Starting population was the current total estimated population size of 7,000 individuals, with 33% of the population on protected lands (Table 1). The dashed lines depict results from a multiplicative growth rate (lambda) of 0.9 on unprotected lands, and the solid lines show 0.8. Migration rates between protected and unprotected lands were set at (A) 0.0 and (B) 0.1 with an SD of 0.05. Results are reported from 1,000 simulations, and all other parameters of the model are as described in Fig. 2. The gray dotted lines depict the 50% threshold for uplisting to endangered status as required by the IUCN Red List criterion A3b.

Fig. S2.

Simulated population trajectories over three generations (15 y) for the global cheetah population with different positive growth rates on protected lands. Starting population was the current total estimated population size of 7,000 individuals, with 33% of the population on protected lands (Table 1). The dashed lines depict results from a multiplicative growth rate (lambda) of 0.9 on unprotected lands, and the solid lines show 0.8. Migration rates between protected and unprotected lands were set at 0.05 with an SD of 0.025. Mean lambda values on protected land were set at (A) 1.025 and (B) 1.05. Results are reported from 1,000 simulations, and all other parameters of the model are as described in Fig. 2. The gray dotted lines depict the 50% threshold for uplisting to endangered status as required by the IUCN Red List criterion A3b.

Fig. 4.

Decision tree for threat assessment of protection-reliant species.