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. 2017 Jan 4:7:39930.
doi: 10.1038/srep39930.

Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

Matthew P Adams  1 , Catherine J Collier  2   3 , Sven Uthicke  4 , Yan X Ow  2   3   5 , Lucas Langlois  3 , Katherine R O'Brien  1
Affiliations

Model fit versus biological relevance: Evaluating photosynthesis-temperature models for three tropical seagrass species

Matthew P Adams et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

When several models can describe a biological process, the equation that best fits the data is typically considered the best. However, models are most useful when they also possess biologically-meaningful parameters. In particular, model parameters should be stable, physically interpretable, and transferable to other contexts, e.g. for direct indication of system state, or usage in other model types. As an example of implementing these recommended requirements for model parameters, we evaluated twelve published empirical models for temperature-dependent tropical seagrass photosynthesis, based on two criteria: (1) goodness of fit, and (2) how easily biologically-meaningful parameters can be obtained. All models were formulated in terms of parameters characterising the thermal optimum (Topt) for maximum photosynthetic rate (Pmax). These parameters indicate the upper thermal limits of seagrass photosynthetic capacity, and hence can be used to assess the vulnerability of seagrass to temperature change. Our study exemplifies an approach to model selection which optimises the usefulness of empirical models for both modellers and ecologists alike.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1. All 12 models fitted to the photosynthesis-temperature curve of C. serrulata at Green Island in summer.
Error bars indicate ±SD.
Figure 2
Figure 2. Criteria for selecting the best model, and how the 12 tested models satisfied these criteria.
Figure 3
Figure 3. Fitting the Yan and Hunt model to the seven photosynthesis-temperature curves of tropical seagrass.
GI = Green Island, MB = Moreton Bay. Error bars indicate ±SD.
Figure 4
Figure 4. Green Island and Moreton Bay study sites, off the coast of Queensland, Australia.
Seagrass distribution (shown in green) is reproduced from McKenzie et al. for Green Island and Roelfsema et al. for Moreton Bay. All seagrass data for this map is publicly available in PANGAEA. The map was produced using ArcGIS for Desktop version 10.2 (Esri 2013) (http://www.esri.com/software/arcgis/arcgis-for-desktop) and Adobe Illustrator CC 2015 (http://www.adobe.com/au/creativecloud.html).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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