Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2017 Jan 9;17(1):7.
doi: 10.1186/s12876-016-0562-9.

A simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic subjects aged 40-49 years

Yoo Mi Park  1   2 , Hee Sun Kim  2 , Jae Jun Park  3 , Su Jung Baik  2 , Young Hoon Youn  1 , Jie-Hyun Kim  1 , Hyojin Park  1
Affiliations

A simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic subjects aged 40-49 years

Yoo Mi Park et al. BMC Gastroenterol. .

Abstract

Background: Limited data are available for advanced colorectal neoplasm in asymptomatic individuals aged 40-49 years. We aimed to identify risk factors and develop a simple prediction model for advanced colorectal neoplasm in these persons.

Methods: Clinical data were collected on 2781 asymptomatic subjects aged 40-49 years who underwent colonoscopy for routine health examination. Subjects were randomly allocated to a development or validation set. Logistic regression analysis was used to determine predictors of advanced colorectal neoplasm.

Results: The prevalence of overall and advanced colorectal neoplasm was 20.2 and 2.5% respectively. Older age (45-49 years), male sex, positive serology of Helicobacter pylori, and high triglyceride and low high-density lipoprotein (HDL) levels were independently associated with an increased risk of advanced colorectal neoplasm. BMI (body mass index) was not significant in multivariable analysis. We developed a simple scoring model for advanced colorectal neoplasm (range 0-9). A cutoff of ≥4 defined 43% of subjects as high risk for advanced colorectal neoplasm (sensitivity, 79%; specificity, 58%; area under the receiver operating curve = 0.72) in the validation datasets.

Conclusion: Older age (45-49 years), male sex, positive serology of H. pylori, high triglyceride level, and low HDL level were identified as independent risk factors for advanced colorectal neoplasm.

Keywords: Adenoma; Colonoscopy; Colorectal neoplasm; Risk assessment; Screening.

PubMed Disclaimer

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve of the simple scoring model for advanced neoplasm in subjects aged 40–49 years. An AUROC of 0.74 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.717–0.757) in development set (a) and an AUROC of 0.72 (95% CI 0.0695–0.753) in the validation set (b)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Estimated prevalence of advanced neoplasm according to the risk score in the validation set. The proportion of subjects with scores of 0–1, 2–3, 4–5, 6–7, and 8–9 correspond to 0.6, 1.5, 3.0, 6.0, and 13.0%, respectively. A cutoff point of ≥4 (sensitivity 79%, specificity 58%) indicates that 43% of subjects are at high risk for advanced colorectal neoplasm
See this image and copyright information in PMC

References

    1. Ferlay J, Soerjomataram I, Dikshit R, Eser S, Mathers C, Rebelo M, Parkin DM, Forman D, Bray F. Cancer incidence and mortality worldwide: sources, methods and major patterns in GLOBOCAN 2012. Int J Cancer. 2015;136(5):E359–86. doi: 10.1002/ijc.29210. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Sung JJ, Lau JY, Goh KL, Leung WK, Asia Pacific Working Group on Colorectal C Increasing incidence of colorectal cancer in Asia: implications for screening. Lancet Oncol. 2005;6(11):871–6. doi: 10.1016/S1470-2045(05)70422-8. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Toyoda Y, Nakayama T, Ito Y, Ioka A, Tsukuma H. Trends in colorectal cancer incidence by subsite in Osaka, Japan. Jpn J Clin Oncol. 2009;39(3):189–91. doi: 10.1093/jjco/hyn144. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Hill MJ, Morson BC, Bussey HJ. Aetiology of adenoma--carcinoma sequence in large bowel. Lancet. 1978;1(8058):245–7. doi: 10.1016/S0140-6736(78)90487-7. - DOI - PubMed
    1. Winawer S, Fletcher R, Rex D, Bond J, Burt R, Ferrucci J, Ganiats T, Levin T, Woolf S, Johnson D, et al. Colorectal cancer screening and surveillance: clinical guidelines and rationale-Update based on new evidence. Gastroenterology. 2003;124(2):544–60. doi: 10.1053/gast.2003.50044. - DOI - PubMed

Publication types

MeSH terms