Impact of Multidrug Resistance on Tuberculosis Recurrence and Long-Term Outcome in China

Abstract

Little is known about the impact of drug resistance on recurrence in TB. We conducted a cohort study to measure the impact of multi-drug resistance (MDR) on TB recurrence over nine years in Henan Province China. We reviewed medical records and conducted field interviews of 100 MDR and 150 non-MDR TB patients who were treated between 2001 and 2002. We compared long-term recurrence rates, risk factors, and outcomes in 2010 for 234 individuals who could be followed up. About one third (29.5%, 69/234) suffered recurrence after completion of treatment. The overall recurrence rate was 35/1,000 patient-years (PY), with a much higher rate (65/1,000 PY) among MDR-TB patients. MDR (HR: 2.75; CI: 1.58-4.79) and patient annual household income less than 10,000 Yuan (HR: 2.05; CI 1.11-3.80) were associated with recurrence. The mean time for recurrence among MDR-TB patients was 5.7 years, compared to 7.2 years among non-MDR-TB patients. Among the recurrence group members, 61.3% died, and 18.8% had failed treatments. We believe that the high TB recurrence rate after 9 years suggests that a high cure rate cannot accurately predict long-term outcome. We recommend that TB surveillance and control should be strengthened with a focus on MDR-TB and directly observed treatment, to reduce TB recurrence and transmission of MDR-TB.

Fig 1. Selection of the study population in 2010 (reprinted, originally printed @BMC Public Health 2015 [8]).

Fig 2. Geographical location of counties surveyed in Henan Province, 2001 & 2010.

Fig 3. Effect of drug resistance on recurrence over time.