Psychologic distress as a predictor of mortality

Abstract

In a 12-year follow-up study of 610 persons (239 black and 371 white) in Evans County, Georgia, psychologic distress as measured by total score on the Health Opinion Survey, a 20-item questionnaire, was a predictor of mortality. The hazard ratio, comparing the 95th percentile score with the median, was 1.93 (97.5% confidence interval (CI) 1.42-2.62), controlling for age, race, and sex; there was no interaction with these variables. A purer measure of distress symptomatology, based on 18 of the questionnaire items, was also predictive of mortality. The hazard ratio was 1.94 (97.5% Cl 1.33-2.82), controlling for age, race, sex, and the item, "Do you have any sickness or illness problems at the present time?"; no interactions with the latter variables were found. This pattern was not affected in any major way by several modifications of the analyses: 1) controlling also for smoking, serum cholesterol, Quetelet index (weight (kg)/height (m)2), diastolic blood pressure, a social network index, and a social class index; 2) excluding persons with a diagnosis (in 1968) of chronic heart disease, angina pectoris, myocardial infarction, stroke, transient cerebral ischemic attach, or diabetes mellitus, or whose deaths were due to neoplastic disease; and 3) restricting the analyses to the last half of the follow-up period to explore the role of incipient or early physical illness in producing the association. With the restricted samples, confidence intervals included 1.00, which may be attributed to both the substantially smaller samples and the slightly reduced strength of the effect. The evidence is consistent with a causal role for psychologic distress, as measured by the Health Opinion Survey, in subsequent mortality rates.