A simple prediction score system for malignant brain edema progression in large hemispheric infarction

Abstract

Malignant brain edema (MBE) due to hemispheric infarction can result in brain herniation, poor outcomes, and death; outcome may be improved if certain interventions, such as decompressive craniectomy, are performed early. We sought to generate a prediction score to easily identify those patients at high risk for MBE. 121 patients with large hemispheric infarction (LHI) (2011 to 2014) were included. Patients were divided into two groups: those who developed MBE and those who did not. Independent predictors of MBE were identified by logistic regression and a score was developed. Four factors were independently associated with MBE: baseline National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS) score (p = 0.048), Alberta Stroke Program Early Computed Tomography Score (ASPECTS) (p = 0.007), collateral score (CS) (p<0.001) and revascularization failure (p = 0.013). Points were assigned for each factor as follows: NIHSS ≤ 8 (= 0), 9-17 (= 1), ≥ 18 (= 2); ASPECTS≤ 7 (= 1), >8 (= 0); CS<2 (= 1), ≥2 (= 0); revascularization failure (= 1),success (= 0). The MBE Score (MBES) represents the sum of these individual points. Of 26 patients with a MBES of 0 to 1, none developed MBE. All patients with a MBES of 6 developed MBE. Both MBE development and functional outcomes were strongly associated with the MBES (p = 0.007 and 0.002, respectively). The MBE score is a simple reliable tool for the prediction of MBE.

Fig 1

(A) MBE Scoring Components and Scores. (B) Receiver operator characteristics curve showing MBES in comparison with other clinical scores (NIHSS, ASPECTS, CS) that predict MBE. Age is shown for reference only.

Fig 2

(A) Rate of MBE across MBESs. (B) 90 day mRS score distribution across MBESs.