The Sendai and Fukuoka consensus criteria for the management of branch duct IPMN - A meta-analysis on their accuracy

Abstract

Introduction: The risk of malignancy in branch duct intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasia of the pancreas (BD-IPMN) is controversially debated. An increasing number of studies report on outcomes using the Sendai or Fukuoka consensus criteria for treatment decision-making. The objective of this work was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the Sendai and Fukuoka criteria.

Methods: We systematically reviewed studies on Sendai or Fukuoka criteria-guided management of BD-IPMN. Pooled sensitivity, specificity and diagnostic odds ratios as compound measures of diagnostic accuracy were calculated from studies matching the inclusion criteria. The meta-analysis was performed using a random effects model.

Results: Fifteen studies with a total of 2710 patients were included. Twelve of these used the Sendai criteria. In these studies, 23% of Sendai-negative patients had a high grade dysplastic lesion or an invasive carcinoma in final histology. Pooled sensitivity was 56%, specificity was 74% and the diagnostic odds ratio for malignancy in Sendai-positive lesions was 7.45. When the results of follow-up examinations were included, diagnostic accuracy improved significantly (14.66, p < 0.001). Three studies were identified that used the Fukuoka criteria for decision making. Of 200 patients with Fukuoka-negative lesions who underwent surgery, 22 had a malignant lesion in final histology (11%). Pooled sensitivity was 83%, specificity was 53% and the diagnostic odds ratio was 8.76.

Conclusion: The Fukuoka criteria have considerably improved sensitivity but still lack adequate specificity. For further reduction of a potential surgical overtreatment of BD-IPMN, the development of criteria with an increased specificity is required.

Keywords: Cancer; Guidelines; IPMN; Malignancy; Side branch.