Skip to main page content
U.S. flag

An official website of the United States government

Dot gov

The .gov means it’s official.
Federal government websites often end in .gov or .mil. Before sharing sensitive information, make sure you’re on a federal government site.

Https

The site is secure.
The https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely.

Access keys NCBI Homepage MyNCBI Homepage Main Content Main Navigation
. 2017 Apr 25;135(17):1617-1628.
doi: 10.1161/CIRCULATIONAHA.116.025322. Epub 2017 Feb 13.

Potential Deaths Averted and Serious Adverse Events Incurred From Adoption of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Intensive Blood Pressure Regimen in the United States: Projections From NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey)

Adam P Bress  1 , Holly Kramer  2 , Rasha Khatib  2 , Srinivasan Beddhu  2 , Alfred K Cheung  2 , Rachel Hess  2 , Vinod K Bansal  2 , Guichan Cao  2 , Jerry Yee  2 , Andrew E Moran  2 , Ramon Durazo-Arvizu  2 , Paul Muntner  2 , Richard S Cooper  2
Affiliations

Potential Deaths Averted and Serious Adverse Events Incurred From Adoption of the SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) Intensive Blood Pressure Regimen in the United States: Projections From NHANES (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey)

Adam P Bress et al. Circulation. .

Abstract

Background: SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial) demonstrated a 27% reduction in all-cause mortality with a systolic blood pressure (SBP) goal of <120 versus <140 mm Hg among US adults at high cardiovascular disease risk but without diabetes mellitus, stroke, or heart failure. To quantify the potential benefits and risks of SPRINT intensive goal implementation, we estimated the deaths prevented and excess serious adverse events incurred if the SPRINT intensive SBP treatment goal were implemented in all eligible US adults.

Methods: SPRINT eligibility criteria were applied to the 1999 to 2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and linked with the National Death Index through December 2011. SPRINT eligibility included age ≥50 years, SBP of 130 to 180 mm Hg (depending on the number of antihypertensive medications being taken), and high cardiovascular disease risk. Exclusion criteria were diabetes mellitus, history of stroke, >1 g proteinuria, heart failure, estimated glomerular filtration rate <20 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, or dialysis. Annual mortality rates were calculated by dividing the Kaplan-Meier 5-year mortality by 5. Hazard ratios for all-cause mortality and heart failure and absolute risks for serious adverse events in SPRINT were used to estimate the number of potential deaths and heart failure cases prevented and serious adverse events incurred with intensive SBP treatment.

Results: The mean age was 68.6 years, and 83.2% and 7.4% were non-Hispanic white and non-Hispanic black, respectively. The annual mortality rate was 2.20% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.91-2.48), and intensive SBP treatment was projected to prevent ≈107 500 deaths per year (95% CI, 93 300-121 200) and give rise to 56 100 (95% CI, 50 800-61 400) episodes of hypotension, 34 400 (95% CI, 31 200-37 600) episodes of syncope, 43 400 (95% CI, 39 400-47 500) serious electrolyte disorders, and 88 700 (95% CI, 80 400-97 000) cases of acute kidney injury per year. The analysis-of-extremes approach indicated that the range of estimated lower- and upper-bound number of deaths prevented per year with intensive SBP control was 34 600 to 179 600. Intensive SBP control was projected to prevent 46 100 (95% CI, 41 800-50 400) cases of heart failure annually.

Conclusions: If fully implemented in eligible US adults, intensive SBP treatment could prevent ≈107 500 deaths per year. A consequence of this treatment strategy, however, could be an increase in serious adverse events.

Keywords: blood pressure; hypertension; treatment outcome.

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

Disclosures

APB: Receives research support from Novartis not related to the current project.

HK: No conflicts of interest to disclose

RH: No conflicts of interest to disclose

RK: No conflicts of interest to disclose

SB: No conflicts of interest to disclose

AKC: No conflicts of interest to disclose

VKB: No conflicts of interest to disclose

GC: No conflicts of interest to disclose

JY: No conflicts of interest to disclose

AEM: No conflicts of interest to disclose

RD: No conflicts of interest to disclose

PM: No conflicts of interest to disclose

RC: No conflicts of interest to disclose

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Flowchart showing the SPRINT eligibility criteria applied to the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1999–2006
Figure 2
Figure 2. Potential number of serious adverse events per year with standard and intensive SBP control among NHANES participants who meet the SPRINT eligibility criteria
Projected number of SAEs from standard and intensive SBP control were calculated by taking the observed SAE rate in SPRINT and dividing it by 3.26 (the median follow-up in SPRINT) and then multiplying it by 18,100,000 which is the number of U.S. Adults meeting the sprint eligibility criteria from 1999–2006 SAEs= Serious adverse events, SBP=systolic blood pressure, SPRINT - Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial. Vertical lines denote the upper limit of the 95% confidence interval.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

References

    1. Lim SS, Vos T, Flaxman AD, Danaei G, Shibuya K, Adair-Rohani H, Amann M, Anderson HR, Andrews KG, Aryee M, Atkinson C, Bacchus LJ, Bahalim AN, Balakrishnan K, Balmes J, Barker-Collo S, Baxter A, Bell ML, Blore JD, Blyth F, Bonner C, Borges G, Bourne R, Boussinesq M, Brauer M, Brooks P, Bruce NG, Brunekreef B, Bryan-Hancock C, Bucello C, Buchbinder R, Bull F, Burnett RT, Byers TE, Calabria B, Carapetis J, Carnahan E, Chafe Z, Charlson F, Chen H, Chen JS, Cheng AT, Child JC, Cohen A, Colson KE, Cowie BC, Darby S, Darling S, Davis A, Degenhardt L, Dentener F, Des Jarlais DC, Devries K, Dherani M, Ding EL, Dorsey ER, Driscoll T, Edmond K, Ali SE, Engell RE, Erwin PJ, Fahimi S, Falder G, Farzadfar F, Ferrari A, Finucane MM, Flaxman S, Fowkes FG, Freedman G, Freeman MK, Gakidou E, Ghosh S, Giovannucci E, Gmel G, Graham K, Grainger R, Grant B, Gunnell D, Gutierrez HR, Hall W, Hoek HW, Hogan A, Hosgood HD, 3rd, Hoy D, Hu H, Hubbell BJ, Hutchings SJ, Ibeanusi SE, Jacklyn GL, Jasrasaria R, Jonas JB, Kan H, Kanis JA, Kassebaum N, Kawakami N, Khang YH, Khatibzadeh S, Khoo JP, Kok C, Laden F, Lalloo R, Lan Q, Lathlean T, Leasher JL, Leigh J, Li Y, Lin JK, Lipshultz SE, London S, Lozano R, Lu Y, Mak J, Malekzadeh R, Mallinger L, Marcenes W, March L, Marks R, Martin R, McGale P, McGrath J, Mehta S, Mensah GA, Merriman TR, Micha R, Michaud C, Mishra V, Mohd Hanafiah K, Mokdad AA, Morawska L, Mozaffarian D, Murphy T, Naghavi M, Neal B, Nelson PK, Nolla JM, Norman R, Olives C, Omer SB, Orchard J, Osborne R, Ostro B, Page A, Pandey KD, Parry CD, Passmore E, Patra J, Pearce N, Pelizzari PM, Petzold M, Phillips MR, Pope D, Pope CA, 3rd, Powles J, Rao M, Razavi H, Rehfuess EA, Rehm JT, Ritz B, Rivara FP, Roberts T, Robinson C, Rodriguez-Portales JA, Romieu I, Room R, Rosenfeld LC, Roy A, Rushton L, Salomon JA, Sampson U, Sanchez-Riera L, Sanman E, Sapkota A, Seedat S, Shi P, Shield K, Shivakoti R, Singh GM, Sleet DA, Smith E, Smith KR, Stapelberg NJ, Steenland K, Stockl H, Stovner LJ, Straif K, Straney L, Thurston GD, Tran JH, Van Dingenen R, van Donkelaar A, Veerman JL, Vijayakumar L, Weintraub R, Weissman MM, White RA, Whiteford H, Wiersma ST, Wilkinson JD, Williams HC, Williams W, Wilson N, Woolf AD, Yip P, Zielinski JM, Lopez AD, Murray CJ, Ezzati M, AlMazroa MA, Memish ZA. A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet. 2012;380:2224–60. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Lewington S, Clarke R, Qizilbash N, Peto R, Collins R Prospective Studies C. Age-specific relevance of usual blood pressure to vascular mortality: a meta-analysis of individual data for one million adults in 61 prospective studies. Lancet. 2002;360:1903–13. - PubMed
    1. James PA, Oparil S, Carter BL, Cushman WC, Dennison-Himmelfarb C, Handler J, Lackland DT, LeFevre ML, MacKenzie TD, Ogedegbe O, Smith SC, Jr, Svetkey LP, Taler SJ, Townsend RR, Wright JT, Jr, Narva AS, Ortiz E. 2014 evidence-based guideline for the management of high blood pressure in adults: report from the panel members appointed to the Eighth Joint National Committee (JNC 8) JAMA. 2014;311:507–20. - PubMed
    1. Cushman WC, Evans GW, Byington RP, Goff DC, Jr, Grimm RH, Jr, Cutler JA, Simons-Morton DG, Basile JN, Corson MA, Probstfield JL, Katz L, Peterson KA, Friedewald WT, Buse JB, Bigger JT, Gerstein HC, Ismail-Beigi F. Effects of intensive blood-pressure control in type 2 diabetes mellitus. N Engl J Med. 2010;362:1575–85. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Benavente OR, Coffey CS, Conwit R, Hart RG, McClure LA, Pearce LA, Pergola PE, Szychowski JM. Blood-pressure targets in patients with recent lacunar stroke: the SPS3 randomised trial. Lancet. 2013;382:507–15. - PMC - PubMed

MeSH terms

Substances