Early estimates of SEER cancer incidence, 2014

Abstract

Background: Cancer incidence rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2014 using data reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program in February 2016 and a validation of rates and trends for cases diagnosed through 2013 and submitted in February 2015 using the November 2015 submission are reported. New cancer sites include the pancreas, kidney and renal pelvis, corpus and uterus, and childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years inclusive.

Methods: A new reporting delay model is presented for these estimates for more consistent results with the model used for the usual November SEER submissions, adjusting for the large case undercount in the February submission. Joinpoint regression methodology was used to assess trends. Delay-adjusted rates and trends were checked for validity between the February 2016 and November 2016 submissions.

Results: Validation revealed that the delay model provides similar estimates of eventual counts using either February or November submission data. Trends declined through 2014 for prostate and colon and rectum cancer for males and females, male and female lung cancer, and cervical cancer. Thyroid cancer and liver and intrahepatic bile duct cancer increased. Pancreas (male and female) and corpus and uterus cancer demonstrated a modest increase. Slight increases occurred for male kidney and renal pelvis, and for all childhood cancer sites for ages birth to 19 years.

Conclusions: Evaluating early cancer data submissions, adjusted for reporting delay, produces timely and valid incidence rates and trends. The results of the current study support using delay-adjusted February submission data for valid incidence rate and trend estimates over several data cycles. Cancer 2017;123:2524-34. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

Keywords: annual percent change; average annual percent change; early estimates of cancer incidence rates; population-based registry data; registry-specific delay-adjustment.

Figure 1.

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries observed and delay-adjusted incidence rates for colon and rectum (female), skin melanoma (female), breast, prostate, cervix, and thyroid (female) for the diagnosis years 2000 through 2014 from the February 2016 SEER submission. AAPC indicates average annual percent change; APC indicates annual percent change; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results. ^The APC and AAPC trends were statistically significant (P<.05). Delay-adjusted rate point estimates are shown in red, followed by joinpoint segment estimates from the delay adjustment model. Non-delay adjustment rate point estimates are shown in blue followed by joinpoint segment estimates in the legend.

Figure 2.

Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 18 registries observed and delay-adjusted rates for new sites introduced with the February 2016 submission. First row: pancreas (male and female); second row: kidney and renal pelvis (male and female); third row: corpus and uterus not otherwise specified (NOS); and fourth row: all sites for ages birth to 19 years (male and female). AAPC indicates average annual percent change; APC indicates annual percent change; SEER, Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results. ^The APC and AAPC trends were statistically significant (P<.05). Delay-adjusted rate point estimates are shown in red, followed by joinpoint segment estimates from the delay adjustment model. Non-delay adjustment rate point estimates are shown in blue followed by joinpoint segment estimates in the legend.