In Mexico, Evidence Of Sustained Consumer Response Two Years After Implementing A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Tax

Abstract

Mexico implemented a 1 peso per liter excise tax on sugar-sweetened beverages on January 1, 2014, and a previous study found a 6 percent reduction in purchases of taxed beverages in 2014. In this study we estimated changes in beverage purchases for 2014 and 2015. We used store purchase data for 6,645 households from January 2012 to December 2015. Changes in purchases of taxed and untaxed beverages in the study period were estimated using two models, which compared 2014 and 2015 purchases with predicted (counterfactual) purchases based on trends in 2012-13. Purchases of taxed beverages decreased 5.5 percent in 2014 and 9.7 percent in 2015, yielding an average reduction of 7.6 percent over the study period. Households at the lowest socioeconomic level had the largest decreases in purchases of taxed beverages in both years. Purchases of untaxed beverage increased 2.1 percent in the study period. Findings from Mexico may encourage other countries to use fiscal policies to reduce consumption of unhealthy beverages along with other interventions to reduce the burden of chronic disease.

Keywords: Mexico; purchases; sugar-sweetened beverages; tax.

Exhibit 1. Absolute values (ml/capita/day) of counterfactuals (predicted in the absence of the tax) and post-tax volumes of taxed beverages

Source: Authors' own analyses and calculations based on data from Nielsen though its Mexico Consumer Panel Service (CPS) for the food and beverage categories for January 2012–December 2015 (The Nielsen Company, 2016). Nielsen is not responsible for and had no role in preparing the results reported herein. Notes: Models adjusted for household size and composition, seasonality, education of the head of the household, household socioeconomic status and macroeconomic variables. Monthly counterfactual estimated based on pre-tax trends. Differences in absolute values comparing the post-tax periods with the counterfactuals were all statistically significant at p<0.01.

Exhibit 3. Absolute values (ml/capita/day) of counterfactuals (predicted in the absence of the tax) and post-tax volumes of untaxed beverages excluding dairy

Source: Authors' own analyses and calculations based on data from Nielsen though its Mexico Consumer Panel Service (CPS) for the food and beverage categories for January 2012–December 2015 (The Nielsen Company, 2016). Nielsen is not responsible for and had no role in preparing the results reported herein. Notes: Models adjusted for household size and composition, seasonality, education of the head of the household, household socioeconomic status and macroeconomic variables. Monthly counterfactual estimated based on pre-tax trends. Differences in absolute values comparing the post-tax periods with the counterfactuals were all statistically significant at p<0.01. Excludes dairy beverages due to incomplete data from Jan -September 2012.