Cancer time trend in a population following a socio-economic transition: results of age-period-cohort analysis

Abstract

Objectives: To examine cancer trend using age-period-cohort analysis with a cohort of patients in Sardinia, Italy, where epidemiological transition occurred between 1950 and 1960.

Methods: Poisson log-linear regression models were used to analyze time trend in patients undergoing upper endoscopy between 1995 and 2013.

Results: A total of 10,546 clinical records (62.2% women) were retrieved. In 541 patients (5.1%), a diagnosis of cancer was reported, more often in men (5.5%) than in women (4.9%). Age and birth cohort were significantly associated with cancer rate according to age-period-cohort analysis (p < 0.0001), whereas the effect of time period was negligible (p = 0.875). An upward trend for all cancers was observed in the younger generations (7.15% before 1950, 8.85% between 1950 and 1960, and 10.7% after 1960).

Conclusions: Population aging and increased exposure to cancer risk factors after epidemiological transition were the major determinants associated with cancer in this Sardinian cohort, whereas time period had no effect, ruling out any variation in diagnostic accuracy. These results may facilitate the provision of preventive measures by the health care system, and improve population-tailored cancer screening strategies.

Keywords: Age-period-cohort analysis; Cancer prevalence; Epidemiological transition; Sardinia.