Updated 24-year trend of Type 1 diabetes incidence in children in Poland reveals a sinusoidal pattern and sustained increase

Abstract

Aims: To present the incidence trend for Type 1 diabetes in Polish children aged 0-14 years, updated using data collected during 2005-2012, and assess the reliability of the predictive model constructed previously using the 1989-2004 database.

Methods: Children aged < 15 years with newly diagnosed Type 1 diabetes are recorded prospectively (EURODIAB criteria) in several regional registers in Poland. Age- and gender-standardized incidence rates for Type 1 diabetes were calculated per 100 000 persons/year. Incidence rates were analysed in terms of the dependency on age, gender, geographical region and population density. Incidence rate trends over time were modelled using generalized linear models.

Results: The mean standardized incidence for 1989-2012 was 12.72 per 100 000 persons/year [95% confidence interval (CI), 11.35 to 14.21]. Over the 24-year observation period, the incidence increased from 5.36 to 22.74 per 100 000 persons/year. The lowest incidence rate was in children aged 0-4 years (8.35, 95% CI 7.27 to 9.57 per 100 000 persons/year). There was no difference between genders, or urban and rural regions. Incidence rates were higher in northern compared with southern Poland [14.04 (95% CI 12.59 to 15.63) vs. 11.94 (95% CI 10.62 to 13.39) per 100 000 persons/year]. The new data corrected the earlier predictive model by changing the estimates of some factors related to patient age, gender and their interactions with the remaining factors. The incidence rate shows periodic 5.33-year fluctuations. The periodicity component allows for a more accurate prediction of the incidence rate over time.

Conclusions: This cohort study reveals a sustained increase in Type 1 diabetes incidence in Polish children aged 0-14 years with regular, sinusoidal fluctuations and a slight levelling off in past few years. It is of concern that are the highest increases in incidence are found in children aged 0-4 years.