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. 2017 Jul;62(6):687-694.
doi: 10.1007/s00038-017-0961-x. Epub 2017 Mar 9.

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978-2013

Sophia Lin  1 , Take Naseri  2 , Christine Linhart  1 , Stephen Morrell  1 , Richard Taylor  3 , Stephen T Mcgarvey  4 , Dianna J Magliano  5 , Paul Zimmet  5
Affiliations

Diabetes incidence and projections from prevalence surveys in Samoa over 1978-2013

Sophia Lin et al. Int J Public Health. 2017 Jul.

Abstract

Objectives: This study estimates type 2 diabetes (T2DM) incidence in Samoans aged 25-64 years from sequential, irregularly spaced, cross-sectional population prevalence surveys.

Methods: T2DM prevalence from eight population surveys conducted over 1978-2013 (n = 12,516) was adjusted for census region, sex, and 5-year age group to the nearest previous census. Annual T2DM incidence was calculated from adjusted prevalences (by sex), using birth cohorts constructed from age-period matrices. Projections of T2DM incidence to 2020 were estimated, based on various scenarios of population weight change using Poisson regression.

Results: Over 1978-2013, T2DM incidence was estimated to increase from 1.12 to 8.44 per 1000 person-years in men and from 2.55 to 8.04 per 1000 in women. Based on regression modeling, if mean population weight was stabilized from 2013, absolute incidence reductions of 0.9 per 1000 person-years (7% lower) are predicted in 2020, compared to the current period trend in weight gain.

Conclusions: T2DM incidence can be calculated from irregularly conducted population risk factor surveys which may be useful in developing countries with limited resources.

Keywords: Developing Country; Incidence; Pacific Islands; Prevalence; Samoa; Type 2 diabetes.

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Conflict of interest statement

Funding

This study was funded by the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, through the Australian Development Research Awards Scheme (ADRAS), Grant Number 66886.

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

This paper does not involve human participants and/or animals.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Estimated type 2 diabetes (T2DM) incidence (per 1000 person-years) in adults aged 25–64 years in Samoa for surveys conducted over 1978–2013, and projection to 2020. Markers indicate survey years. Solid line interpolated and modeled incidence using the Stýblo birth cohort method; broken line projected incidence. X indicates annual T2DM incidence for men and for women (5.3 per 1000 person-years) calculated over 1991–1995 from a cohort study by McGarvey (2001)
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Comment in

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