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Comment
. 2017 Mar 21;114(12):E2272-E2274.
doi: 10.1073/pnas.1700998114. Epub 2017 Mar 15.

Reply to Baskerville and Cobey: Misconceptions about causation with synchrony and seasonal drivers

George Sugihara  1 , Ethan R Deyle  2 , Hao Ye  2
Affiliations
Comment

Reply to Baskerville and Cobey: Misconceptions about causation with synchrony and seasonal drivers

George Sugihara et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. .
No abstract available

PubMed Disclaimer

Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Fig. 1.
Fig. 1.
CCM skill for the effect of influenza on the environment is strongly determined by the degree of synchrony (the maximum lagged correlation between influenza and the environmental variable). Points correspond to the 26 countries studied in ref. . PRCP, precipitation; RH, relative humidity; and T, temperature.
Fig. 2.
Fig. 2.
CCM skill (ρ) as a function of cross-map lag (negative values indicate that causes precede effects). (A) The susceptible–infected–recovered–susceptible (SIRS) model with synchrony between flu and a periodic driver shows no well-defined optimal lag. (B) An empirical example showing the same pattern. Note that selecting the lag with the maximum CCM value over the window used in ref. (dashed lines) obscures the fact that the optimal lag is not unique and thus has little information about the direction of causation.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment on

  • Global environmental drivers of influenza.
    Deyle ER, Maher MC, Hernandez RD, Basu S, Sugihara G. Deyle ER, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016 Nov 15;113(46):13081-13086. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1607747113. Epub 2016 Oct 31. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2016. PMID: 27799563 Free PMC article.
  • Does influenza drive absolute humidity?
    Baskerville EB, Cobey S. Baskerville EB, et al. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017 Mar 21;114(12):E2270-E2271. doi: 10.1073/pnas.1700369114. Epub 2017 Mar 15. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2017. PMID: 28298534 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

References

    1. Baskerville EB, Cobey S. Does influenza drive absolute humidity? Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2017;114:E2270–E2271. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Deyle ER, Maher MC, Hernandez RD, Basu S, Sugihara G. Global environmental drivers of influenza. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA. 2016;113(46):13081–13086. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Sugihara G, et al. Detecting causality in complex ecosystems. Science. 2012;338(6106):496–500. - PubMed
    1. Ye H, Deyle ER, Gilarranz LJ, Sugihara G. Distinguishing time-delayed causal interactions using convergent cross mapping. Sci Rep. 2015;5:14750. - PMC - PubMed
    1. Yang W, Elankumaran S, Marr LC. Relationship between humidity and influenza A viability in droplets and implications for influenza’s seasonality. PLoS One. 2012;7(10):e46789. - PMC - PubMed

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