Joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission: epidemiological evidence

Abstract

Objective: To assess the epidemiological evidence on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission.

Methods: Following PRISMA guidelines, a detailed literature search was conducted in PubMed, Web of Science and Scopus. Peer-reviewed, freely available and full-text articles, considering both climate and socioecological factors in relation to dengue, published in English from January 1993 to October 2015 were included in this review.

Results: Twenty studies have met the inclusion criteria and assessed the impact of both climatic and socioecological factors on dengue dynamics. Among those, four studies have further investigated the relative importance of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. A few studies also developed predictive models including both climatic and socioecological factors.

Conclusions: Due to insufficient data, methodological issues and contextual variability of the studies, it is hard to draw conclusion on the joint effects of climate variability and socioecological factors on dengue transmission. Future research should take into account socioecological factors in combination with climate variables for a better understanding of the complex nature of dengue transmission as well as for improving the predictive capability of dengue forecasting models, to develop effective and reliable early warning systems.

Keywords: Dengue; clima; climat; climate; dengue; efectos conjuntos; effets conjugués; impactos relativos; impacts relatifs; joint effects; projections; proyecciones; relative impacts; socio-ecológicos; socioecological; socioécologique.