Forecasting the personal medical care costs of AIDS from 1988 through 1991

Abstract

The personal medical care costs of those diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) in 1988 are forecast to be $2.2 billion, an amount that will increase to $4.5 billion in 1991. This is the first study to include the cost of purchasing azidothymidine (AZT), also called zidovudine, a palliative treatment for AIDS. The forecasts of this study are lower than those reported by Rice and Scitovsky, and other researchers, because the data are more recent and AIDS patients are receiving more care on an outpatient basis and staying in the hospital fewer days. They are also lower because projections for the number of AIDS cases diagnosed in future years are lower than those made by the Centers for Disease Control (CDC). This study projects that about 38,000 AIDS cases will be diagnosed in 1988 and 73,000 in 1991. The projections in this study are derived using data on the number of AIDS cases reported to CDC from January 1984 to October 1987, while the CDC projections employed by Rice and Scitovsky were derived using data from June 1981 to May 1986. It is also projected that the lifetime cost of treating an AIDS patient will increase from $57,000 in 1988 to $61,800 in 1991 due to the wider use of AZT.