Spatial-temporal diffusion of dengue in the municipality of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, 2000-2013

Abstract

The city of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, shows high potential receptiveness to the introduction, dissemination, and persistence of dengue transmission. The pattern of territorial occupation in the municipality produced a heterogeneous and diverse mosaic, with differential vector distribution between and within neighborhoods, producing distinct epidemics on this scale of observation. The study seeks to identify these epidemics and the pattern of spatial and temporal diffusion of dengue transmission. A model was used for the identification of epidemics, considering the epidemic peak years and months, spatial distribution, and permanence of epidemics from January 2000 to December 2013. A total of 495 epidemic peaks were counted, and the time scale showed the highest occurrence in the months of March, April, and February, respectively. Some neighborhoods appear to present persistent dengue incidence, and the pattern of diffusion allows identifying key trajectories and timely months for intervention.