In the Pursuit of Sons: Additional Births or Sex-Selective Abortion in Pakistan?

Abstract

Even though Pakistan is a highly patriarchal society, it has not featured prominently in studies focusing on sex-selective abortion and sex ratios at birth. But with fertility declining and existing strong son preference-Pakistan has one of the highest desired sex ratios in the world-how will Pakistani families respond? In the pursuit of sons, will they have additional children or resort to sex-selective abortions? Or is there evidence that the pursuit of sons is weakening? Using data from three rounds of the demographic and health survey, we show clear evidence of son preference in fertility intentions, patterns of contraceptive use and parity progression ratios. More specifically, we find pervasive evidence that Pakistanis continue childbearing to have a son, to have more than one son and to have at least one daughter. We do not find consistent and convincing evidence that sex ratios at birth (which indicate sex-selective abortion) are increasing.

Figure 1. Expected patterns of sex ratio at birth (SRB), sex ratio at last birth (SRLB), and desired sex ratio at birth (DSRB) over the course of the transition in son preference

SOURCE: Bongaarts 2013: Figure 10.

Figure 2. Possible responses to, and consequences of, conflicting pressures related to smaller family size and the desire for sons

Figure 3

Trends in desired sex ratio (DSRB), sex ratio at last birth (SRLB), and sex ratio of all births (SRB): Pakistan DHS 1991, 2007, and 2013 DSRB: women below age 35; SRLB: births in 5 years preceding survey among women with intention to have no more children; SRB: births in 5 years preceding survey.