A Highly Predictive Risk Model for Pacemaker Implantation After TAVR

Abstract

Objectives: This study sought to develop a robust and definitive risk model for new permanent pacemaker implantation (PPMI) after SAPIEN 3 (third generation balloon expandable valve) (Edwards Lifesciences, Irvine, California) transcatheter aortic valve replacement (third generation balloon expandable valve TAVR), including calcification in the aortic-valvular complex (AVC).

Background: The association between calcium in the AVC and need for PPMI is poorly delineated after third generation balloon expandable valve TAVR.

Methods: At Cedars-Sinai Heart Institute in Los Angeles, California, a total of 240 patients with severe aortic stenosis underwent third generation balloon expandable valve TAVR and had contrast computed tomography. AVC was characterized precisely by leaflet sector and region.

Results: The total new PPMI rate was 14.6%. On multivariate analysis for predictors of PPMI, pre-procedure third generation balloon expandable valve TAVR, right bundle branch block (RBBB), shorter membranous septum (MS) length, and noncoronary cusp device-landing zone calcium volume (NCC-DLZ CA) were included. Predictive probabilities were generated using this logistic regression model. If 3 pre-procedural risk factors were present, the c-statistic of the model for PPMI was area under the curve of 0.88, sensitivity of 77.1%, and specificity of 87.1%; this risk model had high negative predictive value (95.7%). The addition of the procedural factor of device depth to the model, with the parameter of difference between implantation depth and MS length, combined with RBBB and NCC-DLZ CA increased the c-statistic to 0.92, sensitivity to 94.3%, specificity to 83.8%, and negative predictive value to 98.8% CONCLUSIONS: By using a precise characterization of distribution of calcification in the AVC in a single-center, retrospective study, NCC-DLZ CA was found to be an independent predictor of new PPMI post-third generation balloon expandable valve TAVR. The findings also reinforce the importance of short MS length, pre-existing RBBB, and ventricular implantation depth as important synergistic PPMI risk factors. This risk model will need validation by future prospective multicenter studies.

Keywords: calcification; pacemaker; predictors; transcatheter aortic valve implantation; transcatheter aortic valve replacement.