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. 2017 May 2;8(18):29857-29864.
doi: 10.18632/oncotarget.16167.

Development and validation of nomograms for predicting survival in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer

Huihong Jiang  1 , Erjiang Tang  2 , Dan Xu  2 , Ying Chen  2 , Yong Zhang  3 , Min Tang  3 , Yihua Xiao  3 , Zhiyong Zhang  4 , Xiaxing Deng  1 , Huaguang Li  2 , Moubin Lin  2   3
Affiliations

Development and validation of nomograms for predicting survival in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer

Huihong Jiang et al. Oncotarget. .

Erratum in

Abstract

Background: This study aimed to develop nomograms for predicting survival in patients with non-metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC).

Results: On multivariate analyses of the derivation set, the nomograms for OS and CSS shared common significant prognostic factors: age, first-degree relative cancer history, differentiation grade, vessels/nerves invasion, TNM stage, CEA, CA19-9 and PNI. The nomograms displayed good accuracy in predicting OS and CSS, with C-indexes of 0.75 and 0.76, respectively. The calibration plots also showed an excellent agreement between the predicted and observed survival probabilities. Furthermore, the predictive accuracy of the nomograms was confirmed in the validation set, with C-indexes of 0.79 and 0.83 for OS and CSS, respectively.

Materials and methods: On the basis of data from 822 patients with resected non-metastatic CRC, nomograms for predicting overall survival (OS) and cancer-specific survival (CSS) were established using Cox regression model. The predictive performance of the nomograms was assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration plot. An independent external cohort of 171 patients was used to validate the nomograms.

Conclusions: We developed and validated two nomograms for patients with non-metastatic CRC, which could provide individual prediction of OS and CSS with high accuracy.

Keywords: cancer-specific survival; colorectal cancer; nomogram; overall survival; prognostic.

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Conflict of interest statement

CONFLICTS OF INTEREST

The authors declare no conflicts of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Nomograms for predicting OS (A) and CSS (B) based on the derivation set. The nomogram is used by adding up the points identified on the points scale for each variable. According to the sum of these points projected on the bottom scales, the nomogram can provide the probabilities of 3- and 5-year OS and CSS for an individual patient.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Calibration curves for predicting OS (A and B) and CSS (C and D) at 3 and 5 years in the derivation set. The 45-degree straight line represents the perfect match between the actual (Y-axis) and nomogram-predicted (X-axis) survival probabilities. A closer distance between two curves indicates higher accuracy.
Figure 3
Figure 3
Calibration curves for predicting OS (A and B) and CSS (C and D) at 3 and 5 years in the validation set. The 45-degree straight line represents the perfect match between the actual (Y-axis) and nomogram-predicted (X-axis) survival probabilities. A closer distance between two curves indicates higher accuracy.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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