Climate Change and Simulation of Cardiovascular Disease Mortality: A Case Study of Mashhad, Iran

Abstract

Background: Weather and climate play a significant role in human health. We are accustomed to affects the weather conditions. By increasing or decreasing the environment temperature or change of seasons, some diseases become prevalent or remove. This study investigated the role of temperature in cardiovascular disease mortality of city of Mashhad in the current decade and its simulation in the future decades under conditions of climate change.

Methods: Cardiovascular disease mortality data and the daily temperatures data were used during (2004-2013) period. First, the correlation between cardiovascular disease mortality and maximum and minimum temperatures were calculated then by using General Circulation Model, Emissions Scenarios, and temperature data were extracted for the next five decades and finally, mortality was simulated.

Results: There is a strong positive association between maximum temperature and mortality (r= 0.83, P-value<0.01), also observed a negative and weak but significant association between minimum temperatures and mortality. The results obtained from simulation show increased temperature in the next decades in Mashhad and a 1 °C increase in maximum temperature is associated with a 4.27% (95%CI: 0.91, 7.00) increase in Cardiovascular disease mortality.

Conclusion: By increasing temperature and the number of hot days the cardiovascular disease mortality increases and these increases will be intensified in the future decades. Therefore, necessary preventive measures are required to mitigate temperature effects with greater attention to vulnerable group.

Keywords: Cardiovascular; Climate change; General circulation model; Maximum temperature.

Fig. 1:

The geographical location of the study area in Iran (a) Shows the location of Khorasan Razavi Province in Iran, (b) is the location of Mashhad in Khorasan Razavi Province

Fig. 2:

Cardiovascular diseases mortality between male and female for different age groups in Mashhad during the baseline period (2004–2013)

Fig. 3:

Number of days with max temperatures higher than 26 °C during future decades compared to the baseline period

Fig. 4:

Mortality and frequency of hot days (above 26 °C), observed decade (a) and future decades (b–f)