Validation of prognostic scores to predict short-term mortality in patients with HBV-related acute-on-chronic liver failure: The CLIF-C OF is superior to MELD, CLIF SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF

Abstract

Acute-on-chronic liver failure (ACLF) in chronic hepatitis B (CHB) patients has a high short-term mortality. Identification of effective models to predict the short-term mortality may enable early intervention and improve patients' prognosis. We aim to assess the performance of the CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score (CLIF-C OFs), CLIF sequential organ failure assessment score (CLIF-SOFAs), CLIF Consortium ACLF score (CLIF-C ACLFs), ACLF grade, and model for end-stage liver disease score (MELDs) in predicting the short-term mortality in CHB patients with ACLF.Among the 155 consecutive adult patients with liver failure as a discharge diagnosis were screened, and all the patients were treated at the Department of Infectious Diseases, Huashan Hospital, Fudan University (Shanghai, China) from January 2010 to February 2016. The diagnosis of ACLF was based on the criteria formalized by the ACLF consensus recommendations of the Asian Pacific Association for the Study of the Liver (APASL). Diagnostic accuracy for predicting short-term (28-day) mortality was calculated for CLIF-C OFs, CLIF-SOFAs, CLIF-C ACLFs, ACLF grade, and MELDs in all patients.One hundred fifty-five consecutive adult liver failure patients were screened and 85 patients including 73 males and 12 females were enrolled. Overall, the 28-day transplant-free mortality was 32% in all patients, and 100% in those with severe early course (ACLF-3). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) of CLIF-C OFs (AUROC: 0.906, P = .0306, compared with MELDs) was higher than those of CLIF-SOFAs (AUROC: 0.876), CLIF-C ACLFs (AUROC: 0.858), ACLF grade (AUROC: 0.857), and MELDs (AUROC: 0.838) for predicting short-term mortality. The cut-point for baseline CLIF-C OFs in predicting death was 8.5, with 67% sensitivity, 90% specificity, and AUROC of 0.906 (95% CI: 0.8450-0.9679).The results indicate that short-term mortality is high in patients with ACLF and CLIF Consortium Organ Failure score is superior to MELD, CLIF SOFA, and CLIF-C ACLF in predicting its short-term mortality.

Figure 1

Flowchart for patients’ selection. HBV = hepatitis B virus.

Figure 2

Accuracy of the CLIF-OFs as compared with that of MELD, CLIF SOFAs, and CLIF-ACLF in predicting 28-day mortality of the CHB patients with ACLF. ACLF = acute-on-chronic liver failure, CLIF SOFAs = CLIF sequential organ failure assessment score, MELDs = model for end-stage liver disease score.

Figure 3

Kaplan–Meier survival curves by MELD (Standard), CLIF SOFA, CLIF OFs, and CLIF ACLF. ACLF = acute-on-chronic liver failure, CLIF SOFAs = CLIF sequential organ failure assessment score, MELDs = model for end-stage liver disease score.