Invasive meningococcal disease in the Veneto region of Italy: a capture-recapture analysis for assessing the effectiveness of an integrated surveillance system

Abstract

Background: Epidemiology of Neisseria meningitidis has been changing since the introduction of universal vaccination programmes against meningococcal serogroup C (MenC) and meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) has now become dominant. This study aimed to analyse the cases reported in institutional data recording systems to estimate the burden of invasive meningococcal diseases (IMDs) and assess the effectiveness of surveillance in Veneto region (Italy).

Methods: Analysis was performed from 2007 to 2014 on data recorded in different systems: Mandatory Notification System, National Surveillance of Invasive Bacterial Diseases System and Laboratories Surveillance System (LSS), which were pooled into a combined surveillance system (CSS) and hospital discharge records (HDRs). A capture-recapture method was used and completeness of each source estimated. Number of cases with IMD by source of information and year, incidence of IMD by age group, case fatality rate (CFR) and distribution of meningococcal serogroups by year were also analysed.

Results: Combining the four data systems enabled the identification of 179 confirmed cases with IMD, achieving an overall sensitivity of 94.7% (95% CI: 90.8% to 98.8%), while it was 76.7% (95% CI: 73.6% to 80.1%) for CSS and 77.2% (95% CI: 74.1% to 80.6%) for HDRs. Typing of isolates was done in 80% of cases, and 95.2% of the typed cases were provided by LSS. Serogroup B was confirmed in 50.3% of cases. The estimated IMD notification rate (cases with IMD diagnosed and reported to the surveillance systems) was 0.48/100 000 population, and incidence peaked at 6.2/100 000 in children aged <1 year old (60.9% due to MenB), and increased slightly in the age group between 15 and 19 years (1.1/100 000). A CFR of 14% was recorded (8.7% in paediatric age).

Conclusions: Quality of surveillance systems relies on case ascertainment based on serological characterisation of the circulating strains by microbiology laboratories. All available sources should be routinely combined to improve the epidemiology of IMD and the information used by public health departments to conduct timely preventive measures.

Keywords: laboratory surveillance data; meningococcal disease; sensitivity; surveillance systems.

Figure 1

Venn diagram showing the number and percentage of cases of invasive meningococcal disease identified by three sources: the Mandatory Notification System, the National Surveillance of Invasive Bacterial Diseases System and the Laboratories Surveillance System in Veneto from 2007 to 2014.

Figure 2

Annual notification rate per 100 000 population for Neisseria meningitidis serogroups B and C, and the other less common serogroups (A, Y and W) in the years 2007-2014, estimated from the Combined Surveillance System.

Figure 3

Incidence of invasive meningococcal disease per 100 000 population by age group and serogroup in Veneto during the period 2007-2014. The data came from the three pooled sources (Combined Surveillance System) and from the hospital discharge records.