Association between cardiovascular disease risk scores and subclinical atherosclerosis prevalence in non-elderly adult patients from Argentina

Abstract

The goal of our study was to use statistical analysis to try to associate cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk scores and the observed prevalence of subclinical atherosclerosis (SA) in a non-elderly adult local population. An observational cross-sectional study was carried out (143 male and 131 female) on non-elderly adults (20-59 years). CVD risk scores included Framingham Risk Scores for 10-year hard (FRS 10 H), 30-year lipid hard or CVD (FRS 30 L H or FRS 30 L CVD), 30 year-body mass index hard or CVD (FRS 30 BMI H or FRS 30 BMI CVD) and Pooled Cohort Risk Equations for either 10 years (PCE 10) or lifetime (PCE LT). The Carotid Ultrasound (CU) study was performed and the Coronary Artery Calcium (CAC) score were obtained to assess SA. The Receiving Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve analysis followed by Youden's index was used to evaluate and adjust the stratification of CVD risk scores. SA was detected in 32.4% of individuals. The risk scores that showed the biggest areas under the ROC curve were FRS 30 L (H and CVD). When the cut-off values for these CVD risk scores were adjusted, the FRS 30 L H increased the negative predictive value for the low risk group from 87.7 to 97.0% and the FRS 30 L CVD increased the positive predictive values for the high risk group from 69.7 to 85.7%. The CVD risk stratification of non-elderly adults using FRS 30 L H and FRS 30 L CVD may be a useful tool for selecting candidate patients for diagnostic imaging studies that assess their SA prevalence.

Keywords: Argentina; Cardiovascular disease; Framingham risk scores; Pooled cohort equations; Subclinical atherosclerosis.