Deforestation and Carbon Loss in Southwest Amazonia: Impact of Brazil's Revised Forest Code

Abstract

In 2012 Brazil's National Congress altered the country's Forest Code, decreasing various environmental protections in the set of regulations governing forests. This suggests consequences in increased deforestation and emissions of greenhouse gases and in decreased protection of fragile ecosystems. To ascertain the effects, a simulation was run to the year 2025 for the municipality (county) of Boca do Acre, Amazonas state, Brazil. A baseline scenario considered historical behavior (which did not respect the Forest Code), while two scenarios considered full compliance with the old Forest Code (Law 4771/1965) and the current Code (Law 12,651/2012) regarding the protection of "areas of permanent preservation" (APPs) along the edges of watercourses. The models were parameterized from satellite imagery and simulated using Dinamica-EGO software. Deforestation actors and processes in the municipality were observed in loco in 2012. Carbon emissions and loss of forest by 2025 were computed in the three simulation scenarios. There was a 10% difference in the loss of carbon stock and of forest between the scenarios with the two versions of the Forest Code. The baseline scenario showed the highest loss of carbon stocks and the highest increase in annual emissions. The greatest damage was caused by not protecting wetlands and riparian zones.

Keywords: Climate change; Forest policy; Global warming; Land-use change; Landscape dynamics; Tropical forest.

Fig. 1

Study area

Fig. 2

Land-cover map for 2012

Fig. 3

Map of regions for the scenarios with details for the regions for APP and areas of permanent protection cleared by 2008 (APP2008). a 2012 Forest Code (Law 12.651/2012), b 1965 Forest Code (Law 4.771/1965)

Fig. 4

Percentage of similarity between the simulated and the real map for 2012

Fig. 5

Temporal distribution (2012 to 2025) of land-cover classes based on simulated scenarios. a Deforestation, b Secondary vegetation, c Forest

Fig. 6

Distribution of land-use classes by region in 2012 and for each scenario in 2025. a Secondary vegetation, b Deforestation, c Forest. R1-CU Region 1 Conservation units, R2-IL Region 2 Indigenous lands, R3-RB Region 3 River buffer, R4-IR Region 4 Influence of roads, R5-IA Region 5 Isolated areas, R6-APP Region 6 Areas of permanent protection

Fig. 7

Losses of carbon stocks in 2025 for the study area a whole and by region. R1-CU Region 1 Conservation units, R2-IL Region 2 Indigenous lands, R3-RB Region 3 River buffer, R4-IR Region 4 Influence of roads, R5-IA Region 5 Isolated areas, R6-APP Region 6 Areas of permanent protection

Fig. 8

Comparison of annual emissions of carbon in each simulated scenario

Fig. 9

Initial map (2012) and modeled scenarios (2025). a Observed land use (2012), b Baseline scenario (2025), c 1965 Forest Code scenario (2025), d 2012 Forest Code scenario (2025)