Influenza detection and prediction algorithms: comparative accuracy trial in Östergötland county, Sweden, 2008-2012

Abstract

Methods for the detection of influenza epidemics and prediction of their progress have seldom been comparatively evaluated using prospective designs. This study aimed to perform a prospective comparative trial of algorithms for the detection and prediction of increased local influenza activity. Data on clinical influenza diagnoses recorded by physicians and syndromic data from a telenursing service were used. Five detection and three prediction algorithms previously evaluated in public health settings were calibrated and then evaluated over 3 years. When applied on diagnostic data, only detection using the Serfling regression method and prediction using the non-adaptive log-linear regression method showed acceptable performances during winter influenza seasons. For the syndromic data, none of the detection algorithms displayed a satisfactory performance, while non-adaptive log-linear regression was the best performing prediction method. We conclude that evidence was found for that available algorithms for influenza detection and prediction display satisfactory performance when applied on local diagnostic data during winter influenza seasons. When applied on local syndromic data, the evaluated algorithms did not display consistent performance. Further evaluations and research on combination of methods of these types in public health information infrastructures for 'nowcasting' (integrated detection and prediction) of influenza activity are warranted.

Keywords: Algorithms; epidemiological methods; evaluation research; human influenza; signal detection analysis.

Fig. 1.

Weekly rates of influenza diagnosis cases (a) and telenursing calls for fever (child, adult) (b) in Östergötland County, Sweden, during the retrospective learning period from May 2008 to April 2009 (the gray marked area) and the prospective evaluation period from April 2009 to May 2012.