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. 2017 Apr;46(4):506-516.

Modeling the Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Iran from 2005 to 2025: The Impact of Demographic Changes

Masoumeh Sadeghi  1 , Ali Akbar Haghdoost  2 , Abbas Bahrampour  3   4 , Mohsen Dehghani  5
Affiliations

Modeling the Burden of Cardiovascular Diseases in Iran from 2005 to 2025: The Impact of Demographic Changes

Masoumeh Sadeghi et al. Iran J Public Health. 2017 Apr.

Abstract

Background: Estimating the burden of non-communicable diseases particularly cardiovascular disease (CVD) is essential for health management and policymaking. In this paper, we used a regression model to estimate the future impact of demographic changes on the burden of CVD in Iran during the next two decades.

Methods: Disability-adjusted life years (DALY) were used to estimate the future burden of CVD in Iran. A regression model was used to estimate DALY caused by CVD in the Iranian population aged 30-100 yr, stratified by age group and sex. The predicted population of Iranians aged ≥ 30 yr was entered into the model and DALY were calculated over 2005-2025. To assess the areas of uncertainty in the model, we did sensitivity analysis and Monte Carlo Simulation.

Results: In the year 2005, there were 847309 DALYs caused by CVD in Iranian adults aged ≥ 30 yr. This figure will nearly be 1728836 DALYs in 2025. In other words, just because of the aging, DALY related to CVD will increase more than two-fold in 2025 compared with 2005. The burden of CVD was higher in men (443235) than in women (404235) in 2005; but in 2025, the difference will be less (867639 vs. 861319).

Conclusion: The burden of CVD will increase steeply in Iran over 2005-2025, mainly because of the aging population. Therefore, more attention is needed to deal with the impact of CVD in the following decades in Iran.

Keywords: Cardiovascular diseases; DALY; Demographic changes; Iran; Modelling.

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Figures

Fig. 1:
Fig. 1:
Prediction of Iranian population under 5demographic assumptions (2005–2025) based on population predictions of UN
Fig. 2:
Fig. 2:
Age and Sex pyramid in 2005 compared with 2025
Fig. 3:
Fig. 3:
Predicted annual CVD burden by age 30–64 yr and ≥ 65 yr in iranian adults (2005–2025)
Fig. 4:
Fig. 4:
Estimated reduction in the years of life lost because of CVD in men compare with women in 2025. (Women as refrence group)
Fig. 5:
Fig. 5:
Point estimation and 95% confidence interval of years of life lost because of CVD between 2005–2025, considering 3 different errors in population estimates and 3 different undercounting in mortality rates recorded in 2003 (6 scenarios)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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