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. 2019 Sep 15;74(7):1245-1255.
doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbx071.

Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages

Eric M Vogelsang  1 , James M Raymo  2 , Jersey Liang  3 , Erika Kobayashi  4 , Taro Fukaya  4
Affiliations

Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages

Eric M Vogelsang et al. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. .

Erratum in

  • Population Aging and Health Trajectories at Older Ages.
    Vogelsang EM, Raymo JM, Liang J, Kobayashi E, Fukaya T. Vogelsang EM, et al. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2017 Oct 1;72(6):1111-1112. doi: 10.1093/geronb/gbx088. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci. 2017. PMID: 28977537 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

Abstract

Objective: This study examines relationships between municipal age structure and two types of self-rated health: general (SRH) and comparison with similar-aged peers (C-SRH).

Methods: Using a national sample of almost 5,000 Japanese older adults over two decades, we employ hierarchical growth curve models to estimate health trajectories. For municipal age structure, we consider both the relative prevalence of elderly adults in the local population and the pace of aging over time.

Results: Living in the oldest municipalities was generally associated with worse health, particularly between the ages of 70 and 80 years. For SRH, the speed of municipal population aging was also independently associated with worse health. For C-SRH, worse health in older areas was partially explained by less favorable economic conditions in those municipalities. Results also suggest that higher levels of employment and social integration among older adults living in the oldest municipalities operate in the opposite direction. That is, these attributes partially "protect" individuals from other factors that contribute to worse health.

Discussion: Relative differences in municipal age structure and the pace of population aging are largely unexplored and potentially important correlates of older adult health. This line of research is increasingly salient in a world with substantial and growing regional variation in population aging.

Keywords: Health trajectories; Japan; Population aging; Self-rated health.

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Figures

Figure 1.
Figure 1.
Predictive Marginal Probability of Reporting Fair or Poor Self-Rated Health; by Baseline Age Structure Categories (based upon Model 2-A, Table 2).
Figure 2.
Figure 2.
Predictive Marginal Probability of Reporting Worse Health than Age-Peers; by Baseline Age Structure Categories (based upon Model 3-B, Table 3).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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