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. 2017 Jun 9;7(1):3165.
doi: 10.1038/s41598-017-02997-2.

Global temporal patterns of pancreatic cancer and association with socioeconomic development

Martin C S Wong  1   2 , Johnny Y Jiang  3 , Miaoyin Liang  4 , Yuan Fang  4 , Ming Sze Yeung  4 , Joseph J Y Sung  5   6   7
Affiliations

Global temporal patterns of pancreatic cancer and association with socioeconomic development

Martin C S Wong et al. Sci Rep. .

Abstract

Pancreatic cancer induces a substantial global burden. We examined its global incidence/mortality rates and their correlation with socioeconomic development (Human Development Index [HDI] and Gross Domestic Product [GDP] in 2000 as proxy measures). Data on age-standardized incidence/mortality rates in 2012 were retrieved from the GLOBOCAN database. Temporal patterns in 1998-2007 were assessed for 39 countries according to gender. The Average Annual Percent Change (AAPC) of the incidence/mortality trends was evaluated using joinpoint regression analysis. The age-standardized incidence ranged between 0.8-8.9/100,000. When compared among countries, Brazil (AAPC = 10.4, 95%C.I. = 0.8,21) and France (AAPC = 4.7, 95%C.I. = 3.6,5.9) reported the highest incidence rise in men. The greatest increase in women was reported in Thailand (AAPC = 7, 95%C.I. = 2.1,12.1) and Ecuador (AAPC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 1.3,7.3). For mortality, the Philippines (APCC = 4.3, 95%C.I. = 2,6.6) and Croatia (AAPC = 2, 95% C.I. = 0,3.9) reported the biggest increase among men. The Philippines (AAPC = 5.8, 95% C.I. 4.5,7.2) and Slovakia (AAPC = 3.1, 95% C.I. 0.9,5.3) showed the most prominent rise among women. Its incidence was positively correlated with HDI (men: r = 0.66; women: r = 0.70) and GDP (men: r = 0.29; women: r = 0.28, all p < 0.05), and similarly for mortality (men: r = 0.67; women: r = 0.72 [HDI]; men: r = 0.23; women: r = 0.28 [GDP]). In summary, the incidence and mortality of pancreatic cancer were rising in many countries, requiring regular surveillance.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
(a) Correlation between age-standardised incidence of pancreatic cancer in 2012 and Human Development Index (HDI) in 2000 in men (left) and women (right); (b). Correlation between age-standardised incidence of pancreatic cancer in 2012 and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in 2000 in men (left) and women (right).
Figure 2
Figure 2
(a) Correlation between age-standardised mortality of pancreatic cancer in 2012 and Human Development Index (HDI) in 2000 in men (left) and women (right); (b). Correlation between age-standardised mortality of pancreatic cancer in 2012 and Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita in 2000 in men (left) and women (right).
Figure 3
Figure 3
The Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) of pancreatic cancer incidence in men (left) and women (right) (1998–2007).
Figure 4
Figure 4
The Average Annual Percentage Change (AAPC) of pancreatic cancer mortality in men (left) and women (right) (1998–2007).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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