Too Far to Care? Measuring Public Attention and Fear for Ebola Using Twitter

Abstract

Background: In 2014, the world was startled by a sudden outbreak of Ebola. Although Ebola infections and deaths occurred almost exclusively in Guinea, Sierra Leone, and Liberia, few potential Western cases, in particular, caused a great stir among the public in Western countries.

Objective: This study builds on the construal level theory to examine the relationship between psychological distance to an epidemic and public attention and sentiment expressed on Twitter. Whereas previous research has shown the potential of social media to assess real-time public opinion and sentiment, generalizable insights that further the theory development lack.

Methods: Epidemiological data (number of Ebola infections and fatalities) and media data (tweet volume and key events reported in the media) were collected for the 2014 Ebola outbreak, and Twitter content from the Netherlands was coded for (1) expressions of fear for self or fear for others and (2) psychological distance of the outbreak to the tweet source. Longitudinal relations were compared using vector error correction model (VECM) methodology.

Results: Analyses based on 4500 tweets revealed that increases in public attention to Ebola co-occurred with severe world events related to the epidemic, but not all severe events evoked fear. As hypothesized, Web-based public attention and expressions of fear responded mainly to the psychological distance of the epidemic. A chi-square test showed a significant positive relation between proximity and fear: χ²₂=103.2 (P<.001). Public attention and fear for self in the Netherlands showed peaks when Ebola became spatially closer by crossing the Mediterranean Sea and Atlantic Ocean. Fear for others was mostly predicted by the social distance to the affected parties.

Conclusions: Spatial and social distance are important predictors of public attention to worldwide crisis such as epidemics. These factors need to be taken into account when communicating about human tragedies.

Keywords: distance perception; epidemics; fear; psychological theory; social media.

Figure 1

The daily Dutch tweet volume about Ebola from March 22 to October 31, 2014 (N=185,253); and the reported new cases (N=13,540) and deaths (N=4941) caused by Ebola in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (2015). The primary bar lines indicate one month, the secondary one week.

Figure 2

The daily amount of coded tweets containing fear for self or other or none plotted over time from July 22 to October 31, 2014. The primary bar lines indicate one month, the secondary one week.

Figure 3

The daily amount of coded tweets about Ebola, related to near (Netherlands and neighboring countries) versus far (all other) locations, from July 22 to October 31, 2014. The primary bar lines indicate one month, the secondary one week.