The basic reproduction number of vector-borne plant virus epidemics

Abstract

The basic reproduction number R₀ is a key parameter in plant disease epidemiology, which largely determines whether or not an epidemic will occur in a plant population. The next generation matrix approach to deriving and calculating the basic reproduction number of a plant virus epidemic is described. The approach is illustrated through a series of examples of increasing complexity, ranging from the simplest case of one vector transmitting one virus to a single host, to the case of multiple vectors, to combined horizontal (vector) and vertical (seed) transmission, and where vector control using insecticides is practised. The importance of parameters representing host and vector population dynamics and their interaction in the absence of disease is stressed, and the constraints these place on the calculation of the basic reproduction number. Finally, mention is made of further elaborations to the approach that could prove useful in plant virus epidemiology.

Keywords: Competition; Horizontal transmission; Next generation matrix; Seed transmission; Threshold criteria; Time-in-stage.