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. 2017 Jun 27;12(6):e0179684.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0179684. eCollection 2017.

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America

Taise M Lopes  1 , Dayani Bailly  1 , Bia A Almeida  1 , Natália C L Santos  1 , Barbara C G Gimenez  1   2 , Guilherme O Landgraf  1 , Paulo C L Sales  1   3 , Matheus S Lima-Ribeiro  4 , Fernanda A S Cassemiro  1 , Thiago F Rangel  5 , José A F Diniz-Filho  5 , Angelo A Agostinho  1   6 , Luiz C Gomes  1   6
Affiliations

Two sides of a coin: Effects of climate change on the native and non-native distribution of Colossoma macropomum in South America

Taise M Lopes et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Climate change and species invasions interact in nature, disrupting biological communities. Based on this knowledge, we simultaneously assessed the effects of climate change on the native distribution of the Amazonian fish Colossoma macropomum as well as on its invasiveness across river basins of South America, using ecological niche modeling. We used six niche models within the ensemble forecast context to predict the geographical distribution of C. macropomum for the present time, 2050 and 2080. Given that this species has been continuously introduced into non-native South American basins by fish farming activities, we added the locations of C. macropomum farms into the modeling process to obtain a more realistic scenario of its invasive potential. Based on modelling outputs we mapped climate refuge areas at different times. Our results showed that a plenty of climatically suitable areas for the occurrence of C. macropomum occurrence are located outside the original basins at the present time and that its invasive potential is greatly amplified by fish farms. Simulations of future geographic ranges revealed drastic range contraction in the native region, implying concerns not only with respect to the species conservation but also from a socio-economic perspective since the species is a cornerstone of artisanal and commercial fisheries in the Amazon. Although the invasive potential is projected to decrease in the face of climate change, climate refugia will concentrate in Paraná River, Southeast Atlantic and East Atlantic basins, putting intense, negative pressures on the native fish fauna these regions. Our findings show that short and long-term management actions are required for: i) the conservation of natural stocks of C. macropomum in the Amazon, and ii) protecting native fish fauna in the climate refuges of the invaded regions.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1. Occurrences of Colossoma macropomum in South America.
The small map shows the native range.
Fig 2
Fig 2
Principal component loadings on the first two axes of PCA representing the suitability of Colossoma macropomum for native region at the present time (A), 2050 (B) and 2080 (C); for South America considering natural environment occurrences at the present time (D), 2050 (E) and 2080 (F); and for South America considering the total occurrences (natural environments and fish farming together) at the present time (G), 2050 (H) and 2080 (I). B = Bioclim, ED = Euclidian Distance, GD = Gower Distance; MD = Mahalanobis Distance, M = Maxent; E = Enfa and C = consensus model.
Fig 3
Fig 3
Habitat suitability for Colossoma macropomum occurrence derived from the consensus model for the native region (A) and South America (B) at the present time.
Fig 4
Fig 4
Habitat suitability for Colossoma macropomum derived from a consensus model for the native region (A) and South America (B) in 2050, and for the native region (C) and South America (D) in 2080.
Fig 5
Fig 5
Climate change refugia of Colossoma macropomum in South America at present time (A), 2050 (B) and 2080 (C).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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