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. 2017 Jul;105(3):240-242.
doi: 10.5195/jmla.2017.98. Epub 2017 Jul 1.

Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

Peter Kokol

Trend analysis of journal metrics: a new academic library service?

Peter Kokol. J Med Libr Assoc. 2017 Jul.

Erratum in

Abstract

Objective: Temporal trends in source normalized impact per paper (SNIP) values for the three top-ranking nursing journals were analyzed and compared to explore whether predicting future SNIP values based on trend analysis could be an innovative service provided by librarians.

Methods: The International Journal of Nursing Studies, Journal of Nursing Scholarship, and Journal of Advanced Nursing were the three top-ranked nursing journals according to 2015 SNIP values. SNIP values for the selected journals were retrieved from the Scopus database, and extracted data were exported to Joinpoint trend analysis software to perform trend analysis.

Results: The trend in SNIP values for the International Journal of Nursing Studies was the most stable and positive, whereas the trend in SNIP values for the Journal of Advanced Nursing was the most negative. The annual percentage change of the most recent trend line, which is the best indicator for predicting future SNIP values, was the largest for the International Journal of Nursing Studies.

Conclusions: Predictions of journal metrics based on statistical joinpoint regression may not be completely accurate. Using this technique, however, a librarian can reasonably claim which journal will retain or even improve its prestige in the future and thus safely advise prospective authors on where to publish their research.

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Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Trend model for the International Journal of Nursing Studies (IJNS) SNIP values in the y-axis are shown without a decimal point (e.g., a SNIP value of 1.00 is represented as 100).
Figure 2
Figure 2
Trend model for the Journal of Nursing Scholarship (JNS) SNIP values in the y-axis are shown without a decimal point (e.g., a SNIP value of 1.00 is represented as 100).
Figure 3
Figure 3
Trend model for the Journal of Advanced Nursing (JAN) SNIP values in the y-axis are shown without a decimal point (e.g., a SNIP value of 1.00 is represented as 100).
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