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. 2017 Jul 5;14(7):729.
doi: 10.3390/ijerph14070729.

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

Vladimir Kendrovski  1 , Michela Baccini  2 , Gerardo Sanchez Martinez  3 , Tanja Wolf  4 , Elizabet Paunovic  5 , Bettina Menne  6
Affiliations

Quantifying Projected Heat Mortality Impacts under 21st-Century Warming Conditions for Selected European Countries

Vladimir Kendrovski et al. Int J Environ Res Public Health. .

Abstract

Under future warming conditions, high ambient temperatures will have a significant impact on population health in Europe. The aim of this paper is to quantify the possible future impact of heat on population mortality in European countries, under different climate change scenarios. We combined the heat-mortality function estimated from historical data with meteorological projections for the future time laps 2035-2064 and 2071-2099, developed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. We calculated attributable deaths (AD) at the country level. Overall, the expected impacts will be much larger than the impacts we would observe if apparent temperatures would remain in the future at the observed historical levels. During the period 2071-2099, an overall excess of 46,690 and 117,333 AD per year is expected under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios respectively, in addition to the 16,303 AD estimated under the historical scenario. Mediterranean and Eastern European countries will be the most affected by heat, but a non-negligible impact will be still registered in North-continental countries. Policies and plans for heat mitigation and adaptation are needed and urgent in European countries in order to prevent the expected increase of heat-related deaths in the coming decades.

Keywords: climate change; heat-related mortality; heatwave preparedness.

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Conflict of interest statement

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Attributable fraction (AF) of heat-related deaths during summer by country in European sub-region in 2050: (a) Using MOHC model in RCP 4.5; (b) Using MOHC model in RCP 8.5, and in 2085: (c) Using MOHC model in RCP 4.5; (d) Using MOHC model in RCP 8.5.
Figure 1
Figure 1
Attributable fraction (AF) of heat-related deaths during summer by country in European sub-region in 2050: (a) Using MOHC model in RCP 4.5; (b) Using MOHC model in RCP 8.5, and in 2085: (c) Using MOHC model in RCP 4.5; (d) Using MOHC model in RCP 8.5.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Attributable Community Rate (ACR) per 10,000 inhabitants expected for the future time laps 2036–2064 and 2071–2099 under the historical scenario, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by macro-region (RCP: Representative Concentration Pathways).
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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