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Multicenter Study
. 2017 Jul 6;12(7):e0180444.
doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0180444. eCollection 2017.

Validation of the mSOAR and SOAR scores to predict early mortality in Chinese acute stroke patients

Hui Wang  1   2   3   4   5 , Yuesong Pan  1   2   3   4   6 , Xia Meng  1   2   3   4 , Chunjuan Wang  1   2   3   4 , Xiaoling Liao  1   2   3   4 , David Wang  7 , Xingquan Zhao  1   2   3   4 , Liping Liu  1   2   3   4 , Hao Li  1   2   3   4 , Yilong Wang  1   2   3   4 , Yongjun Wang  1   2   3   4   5
Affiliations
Multicenter Study

Validation of the mSOAR and SOAR scores to predict early mortality in Chinese acute stroke patients

Hui Wang et al. PLoS One. .

Abstract

Background: It is unclear in Chinese patients with acute stroke how the SOAR (stroke subtype, Oxfordshire Community Stroke Project classification, age, and prestrike modified Rankin) and mSOAR (modified-SOAR) scores performed in predicting discharge mortality and 3-month mortality. We aimed to validate the predictability of these scores in this cohort.

Methods: Data from the China National Stroke Registry (CNSR) study was used to perform the mSOAR and SOAR scores for predicting the discharge and 3-month mortality in acute stroke patients.

Results: A total of 11073 acute stroke patients were included in present study. The increased mSOAR and SOAR scores were closely related to higher death risk in acute stroke patients. For discharge mortality, the area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) of the mSOAR and SOAR scores were 0.784 (95% CI 0.761-0.807) and 0.722 (95% CI: 0.698-0.746). For 3-month mortality, they were 0.787 (95% CI: 0.771-0.803) and 0.704 (95% CI: 0.687-0.721), respectively. The mSOAR and SOAR scores showed significant correlation between the predicted and observed probabilities of discharge mortality (mSOAR: r = 0.945, P = 0.001; SOAR: r = 0.994, P<0.001) and 3-month mortality (mSOAR: r = 0.984, P<0.001; SOAR: r = 0.999; P<0.001).

Conclusions: The mSOAR score predicted reliably the risk of death in Chinese acute stroke patients.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Figures

Fig 1
Fig 1
The discharge mortality and 3-month mortality were prognosticated by SOAR score (A) and mSOAR score (B). Patients with mSOAR score of 7 and 8 were merged into score of 6 for small sample size. Patients with SOAR score of 5 and 6 were merged into score of 4 for small sample size.
Fig 2
Fig 2. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis comparing mSOAR and SOAR score with other scores.
The area under the receiver-operator curve (AUC) for prediction of discharges mortality (A) and 3-months mortality (B).
Fig 3
Fig 3
Calibration plot of (A) SOAR score for discharge mortality, (B) mSOAR score for discharge mortality, (C) SOAR score for 3-month mortality, and (D) mSOAR score for 3-month mortality. The vertical lines indicate the 95% confidence intervals of observed rates of mortality.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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