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. 2017 Jul 22;27(4):373-378.
doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2017-053691. Online ahead of print.

Relationship between trying an electronic cigarette and subsequent cigarette experimentation in Scottish adolescents: a cohort study

Catherine Best  1 , Farhana Haseen  2 , Dorothy Currie  2 , Gozde Ozakinci  3 , Anne Marie MacKintosh  4 , Martine Stead  4 , Douglas Eadie  4 , Andy MacGregor  5 , Jamie Pearce  6 , Amanda Amos  7 , John Frank  7 , Sally Haw  1
Affiliations

Relationship between trying an electronic cigarette and subsequent cigarette experimentation in Scottish adolescents: a cohort study

Catherine Best et al. Tob Control. .

Abstract

Background: This study examines whether young never smokers in Scotland, UK, who have tried an e-cigarette are more likely than those who have not, to try a cigarette during the following year.

Methods: Prospective cohort survey conducted in four high schools in Scotland, UK during February/March 2015 (n=3807) with follow-up 1 year later. All pupils (age 11-18) were surveyed. Response rates were high in both years (87% in 2015) and 2680/3807 (70.4%) of the original cohort completed the follow-up survey. Analysis was restricted to baseline 'never smokers' (n=3001/3807), 2125 of whom were available to follow-up (70.8%).

Results: At baseline, 183 of 2125 (8.6%) never smokers had tried an e-cigarette and 1942 had not. Of the young people who had not tried an e-cigarette at baseline, 249 (12.8%) went on to try smoking a cigarette by follow-up. This compares with 74 (40.4%) of those who had tried an e-cigarette at baseline. This effect remained significant in a logistic regression model adjusted for smoking susceptibility, having friends who smoke, family members' smoking status, age, sex, family affluence score, ethnic group and school (adjusted OR 2.42 (95% CI 1.63 to 3.60)). There was a significant interaction between e-cigarette use and smoking susceptibility and between e-cigarette use and smoking within the friendship group.

Conclusions: Young never smokers are more likely to experiment with cigarettes if they have tried an e-cigarette. Causality cannot be inferred, but continued close monitoring of e-cigarette use in young people is warranted.

Keywords: Denormalization; Electronic Nicotine Delivery Devices; Priority/special Populations.

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Conflict of interest statement

Competing interests: None declared.

Figures

Figure 1
Figure 1
Marginal probabilities of cigarette experimentation by e-cigarette use and smoking susceptibility. e-cig, e-cigarette.
Figure 2
Figure 2
Marginal probabilities of cigarette experimentation by e-cigarette use and smokers within friendship. e-cig, e-cigarette.
See this image and copyright information in PMC

Comment in

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