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. 2017 Jul 13;22(28):30572.
doi: 10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2017.22.28.30572.

International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017

Ilaria Dorigatti  1 , Arran Hamlet  1 , Ricardo Aguas  2   3 , Lorenzo Cattarino  1 , Anne Cori  1 , Christl A Donnelly  1 , Tini Garske  1 , Natsuko Imai  1 , Neil M Ferguson  1
Affiliations

International risk of yellow fever spread from the ongoing outbreak in Brazil, December 2016 to May 2017

Ilaria Dorigatti et al. Euro Surveill. .

Abstract

States in south-eastern Brazil were recently affected by the largest Yellow Fever (YF) outbreak seen in a decade in Latin America. Here we provide a quantitative assessment of the risk of travel-related international spread of YF indicating that the United States, Argentina, Uruguay, Spain, Italy and Germany may have received at least one travel-related YF case capable of seeding local transmission. Mitigating the risk of imported YF cases seeding local transmission requires heightened surveillance globally.

Keywords: Brazil; outbreak; travel-related international spread; yellow fever.

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Conflict of interest statement

Conflict of interest: None declared.

Figures

Figure
Figure
Confirmed yellow fever cases in south-east Brazil, 17 December 2016–31 May 2017 (n = 784)
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