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. 2017 Aug 2;18(1):90.
doi: 10.1186/s12889-017-4616-x.

Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China

Tao Liu  1 , Guanghu Zhu  1 , Jianfeng He  2 , Tie Song  2 , Meng Zhang  2 , Hualiang Lin  1 , Jianpeng Xiao  1 , Weilin Zeng  1 , Xing Li  1 , Zhihao Li  1 , Runsheng Xie  1 , Haojie Zhong  2 , Xiaocheng Wu  2   3 , Wenbiao Hu  4 , Yonghui Zhang  5 , Wenjun Ma  6
Affiliations

Early rigorous control interventions can largely reduce dengue outbreak magnitude: experience from Chaozhou, China

Tao Liu et al. BMC Public Health. .

Erratum in

  • Erratum to: BMC Public Health, Vol. 18.
    [No authors listed] [No authors listed] BMC Public Health. 2017 Sep 22;17(1):736. doi: 10.1186/s12889-017-4709-6. BMC Public Health. 2017. PMID: 28938882 Free PMC article. No abstract available.

Abstract

Background: Dengue fever is a severe public heath challenge in south China. A dengue outbreak was reported in Chaozhou city, China in 2015. Intensified interventions were implemented by the government to control the epidemic. However, it is still unknown the degree to which intensified control measures reduced the size of the epidemics, and when should such measures be initiated to reduce the risk of large dengue outbreaks developing?

Methods: We selected Xiangqiao district as study setting because the majority of the indigenous cases (90.6%) in Chaozhou city were from this district. The numbers of daily indigenous dengue cases in 2015 were collected through the national infectious diseases and vectors surveillance system, and daily Breteau Index (BI) data were reported by local public health department. We used a compartmental dynamic SEIR (Susceptible, Exposed, Infected and Removed) model to assess the effectiveness of control interventions, and evaluate the control effect of intervention timing on dengue epidemic.

Results: A total of 1250 indigenous dengue cases was reported from Xiangqiao district. The results of SEIR modeling using BI as an indicator of actual control interventions showed a total of 1255 dengue cases, which is close to the reported number (n = 1250). The size and duration of the outbreak were highly sensitive to the intensity and timing of interventions. The more rigorous and earlier the control interventions implemented, the more effective it yielded. Even if the interventions were initiated several weeks after the onset of the dengue outbreak, the interventions were shown to greatly impact the prevalence and duration of dengue outbreak.

Conclusions: This study suggests that early implementation of rigorous dengue interventions can effectively reduce the epidemic size and shorten the epidemic duration.

Keywords: Compartmental dynamic model; Dengue fever; Epidemic; SEIR model.

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Conflict of interest statement

Ethics approval and consent to participate

All data used in this study were provided by Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention.

Consent for publication

Not applicable.

Competing interests

The authors declare that they have no competing interests.

Publisher’s Note

Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
The location of Xiangqiao district in the city of Chaozhou, Guangdong province, China. Note: This figure depicts the distribution of Xiangqiao district in Chaozhou city through ArcGis (ArcMap 9.3, Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, USA)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
The temporal distribution of all reported local dengue cases in Xiangqiao district, Chaozhou city, China
Fig. 3
Fig. 3
Daily Breteau Index during the dengue outbreak in Xiangqiao district, Chaozhou, China
Fig. 4
Fig. 4
Effects of different levels of control interventions on dengue epidemics in Xiangqiao district, Chaozhou, China. Chart a: Comparisons of the effect of no control and practical control interventions on dengue epidemics.Chart b: Effects of different reductions in effective contact rate (ECR) on dengue epidemics.Chart c: Effects of different reductions in mosquito density on dengue epidemics.Chart d: Effects of different reductions in both mosquito density and ECR on dengue epidemics
Fig. 5
Fig. 5
Effects of start timing for control interventions on dengue epidemic outbreaks. Chart a: The mosquito density was daily reduced by 5% caused by the control interventions. Chart b: The mosquito density was daily reduced by 10% caused by the control interventions
Fig. 6
Fig. 6
Effects of time interval for control interventions on dengue epidemic outbreaks. 5% reduction in mosquito density means that the control intervention causes the mosquito density reducing 5% compared to the day before. Chart a The control interventions were assumed to be carried out from August 28th. Chart b The control interventions were assumed to be carried out between 08/28–09/27, 09/07–10/06 and 09/17–10/16, respectively
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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