Systematic Assessment of the Climate Sensitivity of Important Human and Domestic Animals Pathogens in Europe

Abstract

Climate change is expected to threaten human health and well-being via its effects on climate-sensitive infectious diseases, potentially changing their spatial distributions, affecting annual/seasonal cycles, or altering disease incidence and severity. Climate sensitivity of pathogens is a key indicator that diseases might respond to climate change, but the proportion of pathogens that is climate-sensitive, and their characteristics, are not known. The climate sensitivity of European human and domestic animal infectious pathogens, and the characteristics associated with sensitivity, were assessed systematically in terms of selection of pathogens and choice of literature reviewed. Sixty-three percent (N = 157) of pathogens were climate sensitive; 82% to primary drivers such as rainfall and temperature. Protozoa and helminths, vector-borne, foodborne, soilborne and waterborne transmission routes were associated with larger numbers of climate drivers. Zoonotic pathogens were more climate sensitive than human- or animal-only pathogens. Thirty-seven percent of disability-adjusted-life-years arise from human infectious diseases that are sensitive to primary climate drivers. These results help prioritize surveillance for pathogens that may respond to climate change. Although this study identifies a high degree of climate sensitivity among important pathogens, their response to climate change will be dependent on the nature of their association with climate drivers and impacts of other drivers.

Figure 1

Frequency histograms describing associations between human and domestic animal, high impact pathogens and climate drivers: (a) Frequency of pathogens (across all taxa) associated with different numbers of climate drivers, (b) Proportion of primary (in dark grey) compared to secondary (in light grey) drivers associated with different numbers of climate drivers, and (c) Frequency of pathogens associated with specific climate drivers.

Figure 2

Frequency histograms of human and domestic animal, high impact pathogens associated with different numbers of climate drivers. Bars show the number of (a) fungi, (b) bacteria, (c) helminths, (d) protozoa and (e) viruses that were identified with 0–9 climate drivers.

Figure 3

Stacked bar plot showing the proportion of high impact human and domestic animal pathogens sensitive to different climate drivers, broken down by pathogen taxa. Climate drivers are: altitude (Alt), climate change (Climch), extreme weather events (EWE), moisture (Moist), oscillations (Oscil), particulate matter (PM), rainfall (Rain), salinity (Salin), temperature (Temp), vegetation (Veget) and wind (Wind). Note: more than one climate driver can be associated with a pathogen.

Figure 4

Stacked bar plot showing the proportion of high impact human and animal pathogens with 0–9 climate drivers, broken down by pathogen transmission route. Transmission routes include: environment/airborne (via inhalation) - person (air), nonsexual direct contact (dcont), environment/fomite - person (fomite), foodborne - person (via ingestion) (food), sexual direct contact (sex), environment/soil - person (soil), vector-borne - person (vector) and environment/waterborne - person (water). Note: more than one transmission route can be associated with a pathogen.