Perioperative prediction of agitated (hyperactive) delirium after cardiac surgery in adults - The development of a practical scorecard

Abstract

Background: Delirium is a temporary mental disorder that occurs frequently among hospitalized patients. In this study we sought to develop a user-friendly scorecard based on perioperative features to identify patients at risk of developing agitated delirium after cardiac surgery.

Methods: Retrospective analysis was performed on adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery in a single center. A parsimonious predictive model was created, with subsequent internal validation. Then a simple scorecard was developed that can be used to predict the probability of agitated delirium.

Results: Among the 5584 patients who met the study criteria, 614 (11.4%) developed postoperative agitated delirium. Independent predictors of postoperative agitated delirium were age, male gender, history of cerebrovascular disease, procedure other than isolated Coronary Arteries Bypass Surgery, transfusion of blood products within the first 48h, mechanical ventilation for >24h, length of stay in the Intensive Care Unit. The scorecard stratified patients into 4 categories at risk of postoperative agitated delirium ranging from <5% to >30%.

Conclusion: Using a large cohort of adult patient's undergoing cardiac surgery, a user-friendly scorecard was developed and validated, which will facilitate the implementation of timely interventions to mitigate adverse effects of agitated delirium in this high risk population.

Keywords: CABG; Cardiac surgery; Delirium; Scorecard; Valve surgery.