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. 2018 May;63(Suppl 1):123-136.
doi: 10.1007/s00038-017-1023-0. Epub 2017 Aug 3.

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

GBD 2015 Eastern Mediterranean Region HIV/AIDS Collaborators
Collaborators

Trends in HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality in Eastern Mediterranean countries, 1990-2015: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study

GBD 2015 Eastern Mediterranean Region HIV/AIDS Collaborators. Int J Public Health. 2018 May.

Abstract

Objectives: We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to estimate trends of HIV/AIDS burden in Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) countries between 1990 and 2015.

Methods: Tailored estimation methods were used to produce final estimates of mortality. Years of life lost (YLLs) were calculated by multiplying the mortality rate by population by age-specific life expectancy. Years lived with disability (YLDs) were computed as the prevalence of a sequela multiplied by its disability weight.

Results: In 2015, the rate of HIV/AIDS deaths in the EMR was 1.8 (1.4-2.5) per 100,000 population, a 43% increase from 1990 (0.3; 0.2-0.8). Consequently, the rate of YLLs due to HIV/AIDS increased from 15.3 (7.6-36.2) per 100,000 in 1990 to 81.9 (65.3-114.4) in 2015. The rate of YLDs increased from 1.3 (0.6-3.1) in 1990 to 4.4 (2.7-6.6) in 2015.

Conclusions: HIV/AIDS morbidity and mortality increased in the EMR since 1990. To reverse this trend and achieve epidemic control, EMR countries should strengthen HIV surveillance, and scale up HIV antiretroviral therapy and comprehensive prevention services.

Keywords: Burden of disease; Eastern Mediterranean Region; HIV; HIV mortality.

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Conflict of interest statement

This manuscript reflects original work that has not previously been published in whole or in part and is not under consideration elsewhere. All authors have read the manuscript and have agreed that the work is ready for submission and accept responsibility for its contents. The authors of this paper have complied with all ethical standards and do not have any conflicts of interest to disclose at the time of submission. The funding source played no role in the design of the study, the analysis and interpretation of data, and the writing of the paper. The study did not involve human participants and/or animals; therefore, no informed consent was needed.

The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest at this time.

Figures

Fig. 1
Fig. 1
Trends of HIV/AIDS age-standardized mortality worldwide, and in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR), 1990–2015. (Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, Global, the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2015)
Fig. 2
Fig. 2
Distribution of HIV/AIDS mortality rate and 95% uncertainty levels in the Eastern Mediterranean Region, by age group, in 2015 (Global Burden of Disease Study 2015, Global, the Eastern Mediterranean Region, 1990–2015)
See this image and copyright information in PMC

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